Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks / Post Practice Predictions

Pocono may be called the “Tricky Triangle” but it’s because all three turns are different. For fantasy racers it shouldn’t be considered tricky. It was visited about a month and a half ago. I hope you took notes and remember how that race played out. If you don’t remember read our Scouting Report which highlight’s big moments in the race, notable moments and drivers running position at certain points in the race. Track position is king at Pocono and starting up front is important. Here’s a link to the starting lineup. Practice is important at Pocono so make sure you read our practice notes (Happy Hour Notes – Practice #2 Notes). Also make sure you check out drivers speeds in the sessions (Happy Hour Speeds – Practice #2 Speeds). I would also highly recommend you check out our newly improved Speed Cheat Sheet. It will make it clear to you who’s been fast this weekend. If you’re wondering who’s definitively fast check out our Enhanced Happy Hour Practice Speeds post. Also I would like to note this is a combined Confidence Ranking Picks post / Post Practice Prediction post. Regular posts will resume as normal next week. Thanks for understanding.

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1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 4/1) (Risk Factor – Low)
Pocono Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick has never won at Pocono but he’s been the class of the field here recently. He has back to back 2nd place finishes and in the race prior to that he was running in 2nd place before he had problems. When you combine how strong he’s been this season with his recent Pocono success you know he’ll be tough to beat. On Sunday he’s starting in 2nd. 32% percent of all Pocono races have been won from a from row starting position. In the first practice on Saturday Harvick didn’t like his car but he turned things around in Happy Hour. In final practice he had the 2nd best 10 lap average and the 4th quickest overall speed.
Pocono History – Kevin Harvick has been very impressive at Pocono in the 4 car. In that ride over the last three races he has the best driver rating, a 6.0 average finish and a 7.7 average running position. This June he had a great car and was Martin Truex Jr.’s biggest threat. In the race he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, led the 2nd most laps (39) and had a 3rd place average running position. One notable strength of his from that event is that he was good over long runs. Last August he was very competitive and once again finished runner-up. Also in that race he earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In June 2014 he was strong but his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 116 while he was running in 2nd he had a tire go down and he was forced to make an unscheduled pit stop which dropped him down a lap to 32nd. After Danica Patrick spun on lap 137 he finally got the “Lucky Dog” and over the closing laps he rallied up to a 14th place finish.
Recent Similar Track Trends – At Indianapolis Kevin Harvick had the best car but lost the race during a late restart. In that event he finished 3rd and led a race high 75 laps.
Momentum – Over the last five races Kevin Harvick has scored the 2nd most points, has a 4.4 average result and has finished in the top ten every race.

2) Kurt Busch (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 8/1) (Risk Factor – Low)
Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kurt Busch will be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday. He’s won here multiple times and has recently ranked as one of the best drivers. When you combine his momentum with his stellar track record you know he’ll be in the mix on Sunday. In Happy Hour Kurt Busch showed a lot of speed. He had the best 10 lap average and the second best overall speed.
Pocono History – Kurt Busch runs well at Pocono. He’s won here twice and as long as he avoids problems he’s been a lock for a good finish. Over the last five Pocono races he’s ranked as one of the best drivers. Over this stretch he has the 2nd best driver rating, a 6.2 average finish and a 7.2 average running position. This June at Pocono he had a strong performance even though he was never really a threat. In the race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, finished 5th and had a 6th place average running position. Last August he also had a strong car but finished 13th. That finish is a little deceiving because with 8 laps to go while he was running in 10th he got into the wall and brought out the caution. In that event Busch earned the 5th best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position and led 30 laps. In June 2014 he ran well throughout the event. He finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 5 laps. In August 2013 he was strong in the #78. He finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 9 laps.
Recent Similar Track Trends – At Indy Kurt Busch finished 8th and earned the 11th best driver rating.
Momentum – Kurt Busch now has seven straight top tens. Over this stretch dating back to the first race at Pocono he has a 5.9 average finish.

3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 6/1) (Risk Factor – Medium)
Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Momentum matters in fantasy NASCAR and Kyle Busch has it. He’s winning everywhere right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win again on Sunday. He’s had some great runs here and this spring he had top five potential. Indy is a similar track and last week he kissed the bricks. On Sunday Kyle Busch is starting on the pole. 20% percent of all Pocono races have been won from that starting position. Kyle Busch was fast on Saturday. In the first practice he had the 3rd best overall speed. In Happy Hour he had the best overall speed but it’s important to note he got into the wall early in the session and didn’t return to the track until the closing minutes.
Pocono History – Kyle Busch has never won at Pocono but he shouldn’t be overlooked. In four of the last five Pocono races he’s finished in the top 12. Over this stretch minus his one finish outside of that range (engine failure) he has an 8.8 average finish and a 10th place average running position. This spring he had top five potential but had problems during late restarts and finished 9th as a result. Last August he had early engine problems and was done for the day on lap 23. In June 2014 Busch started in 6th and ran solid for about the first 55 laps. After that pit strategy caused him to have an up and down day in the running order. Towards the end of the race he didn’t make any friends. With 18 laps to go while he was trying to make the pass on Kasey Kahne he got into the 5 car and it pounded the wall hard. Carl Edwards also got collected in the carnage. When the checkered flag waved he finished 12th, had a 15th place average running position and earned the 11th best driver rating. In August 2013 he had a good race. He started 2nd, finished 8th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. In June 2013 Busch was very strong over long runs. He earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and finished 6th. In 2012 Kyle Busch was very competitive but walked away with a pair of misleading results in the 30’s. In 2011 he finished 2nd and 3rd.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Kyle Busch ran well at Indy and raced his way to victory lane. In three of the last four race there he’s finished in the top two.
Momentum –Kyle Busch has won four of the last five races! It’s hard to have more momentum than that.