Michigan 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Pure Michigan 400

11. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

One thing you cannot argue with is the fact that this #78 Chevrolet has a bunch of speed. Now, for some reason, this team just hasn’t been able to finish out races like they were able to do flawlessly throughout the first half of the season. So there’s some concern there. But eventually Truex has to get back on the horse, right? His weekend here at Michigan International Speedway got off to a pretty rough start, as Treux ended up qualifying 22nd for the Pure Michigan 400. That’s not the end of the world, though, because we have plenty of racing to do on Sunday. Also, that makes the #78 Chevrolet a great fantasy pick in leagues like NASCAR.com, FOX, and DraftKings. On Saturday was where Martin really showed his muscle. In Practice #2, he ended up posting the 12th-best lap, and then in Happy Hour Truex was at the top of the speed chart, a full tenth of a second ahead of 2nd-fastest Joey Logano. Looking at recent races here at Michigan, Truex finished 3rd here back in June and has ended up 12th or better in four of the last seven events ran here. I have him right on the outside of the top 10 heading into Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

One major part of handicapping races for fantasy NASCAR is staying up-to-date on the trends. Usually these can be explained, but with what I’m about to tell you, I can think of no possible explanation. Clint Bowyer is currently on a streak of NINE top 10s at Michigan International Speedway. Yeah, he somehow, some way pulled a 10th-place finish off in the rain fest that was the June Michigan race. The craziest part of this whole streak is the fact that this track doesn’t even rank in Bowyer’s top 10 on the circuit. There are actually ten other tracks that the Sprint Cup Series stops at in which Clint has a better career average finish than he does at Michigan–which, for the record, is currently 14.3. So, based on that alone, the #15 Toyota might be a pretty safe fantasy pick this weekend. On Friday, Bowyer qualified 12th and then followed that up with a decent practice session on Saturday morning, posting the 18th-best lap and winding up 13th in ten-lap average. During Happy Hour, the #15 Toyota was 13th-fastest on the speed chart. Momentum-wise, Bowyer is on a three race streak of top 10s in Sprint Cup action (that surprised me as well). It’s almost impossible for me to confidently pick the #15 Toyota for my fantasy rosters this weekend, but I’m not going to be surprised one bit if Bowyer ends up in the top 10 once again in Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400.

13. Tony Stewart – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

When a team first finds speed, it’s a process before they put it all together and start getting the finishes. Think back to when Joe Gibbs Racing first found their speed a couple of months ago. Now, six or seven races later, they’re dominating Sprint Cup events. I’ll stop short of saying that Tony Stewart and the #14 team are going to dominate any races this year, but it’s crystal clear that they’ve found speed lately. Now, as fantasy racers, we just have to wait until they start getting the finishes before confidently picking Smoke. This is the fourth race in a row that Tony Stewart will start inside the top 5, and believe it or not this is the first time he has done this in his whole career, which I find amazing. Now, looking at Michigan specifically, Stewart has a career average finish of 12.2 at this race track and one victory (way back in 2000). Over 31 career starts, he has ended up 10th or better in 20 of them, which is right below 66% of the time. Not too shabby. This weekend, I see Smoke as a top 15 threat in the Pure Michigan 400, but there’s definitely upside there. He was 9th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ended up 18th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. For what it’s worth, seven of the last nine races at Michigan International Speedway have ended with Tony Stewart in 11th or better.

14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Kasey Kahne finally understands that that pressure he is feeling is the Chase coming up ahead. NASCAR’s version of the playoffs is going to be here before we know it and there’s a chance that two of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers won’t get in. The one they should be more concerned with, though, is Kahne. He was looking decent going into Pocono 2 but after a 43rd-place finish there and his 42nd-place result at Watkins Glen, all of a sudden it’s crunch time. Will Kasey Kahne be able to get a victory before the Chase, and will it be here at Michigan? Maybe, and probably not. Kahne does have one win at this track (back in 2006) but it’s going to take a lot of luck (and then some) for him to take home the hardware this weekend. The #5 Chevrolet has decent speed, though. Kasey will roll off the grid in 11th on Sunday and was 11th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday. In Happy Hour, the #5 Chevrolet was 19th-best on the speed chart. Kahne has six results of 16th or better in the last eight Michigan races, which is a good sign. However, he hasn’t ended up better than 19th in Sprint Cup action since Sonoma back in June. Personally, I’d pass on the #5 Chevrolet this weekend.

15. Paul Menard – Starts 24th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Paul Menard gets talked about in my rankings this week by default. Over the last five races at Michigan International Speedway, only one driver has scored more points than Paul Menard, and that is Joey Logano. Back in June, Menard came home 8th, which makes it four top 10s in a row for him at this track. And it must be noted, the three races before that ended with Paul in 4th place. He hasn’t finished worse than 14th here since the 2012 season, too. With that being said, I’m not that confident in Menard being able to continue his streak on Sunday. He will roll off the grid mid-pack and that’s right around where he was on the speed charts in both practice sessions on Saturday. One thing Paul does have going for him is the fact that he has ended up 16th or better in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races. This team is going to have to majorly improve the car on Sunday, but it’s not like they haven’t done it before. Going into the Pure Michigan 400 the #27 Chevrolet is a mid-teens car with some potential to improve.

The Next Ten:

16. Jeff Gordon
17. Ryan Newman
18. Kyle Larson
19. Jamie McMurray
20. Ryan Blaney
21. David Ragan
22. Austin Dillon
23. Greg Biffle
24. Danica Patrick
25. Sam Hornish, Jr.