Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Matt Kenseth (Starting –1st) (Odds To Win – 8/1) (Michigan Typical Trouble Free Finish – 2nd through 15th)
Michigan Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Michigan is a Matt Kenseth track and it’s a venue where you can count on him for a good finish. On Sunday Kenseth is starting on the pole. The last two Michigan August races have been won from that position. In the other two races where he started on the pole this year he’s finished 1st and 4th. I don’t expect the new rules package to throw Kenseth for a loop. I actually expect it to be an advantage for him because I think JGR is the best organization at adapting to new rules. In June I thought Kenseth had the second best car in the rain shortened event (PROS Rankings). One attribute I like about Kenseth is his momentum that you’ll read about below. In practice much like everyone else Kenseth didn’t like his car in traffic.
Michigan History – Michigan is a good track for Matt Kenseth. He’s won here twice and almost always finishes well. In 84% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top fifteen. Also at Michigan his top five finish percentage is 41% and his top ten finish percentage is 59% percent. This June at Michigan he had a very strong car and finished 4th. Also in the race he earned the best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. Performance wise I thought he had the second best car after Harvick. Last August he finished 38th after getting caught up in the early “Big One”. In June 2014 the Toyota’s weren’t very good. In that race he finished 14th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. In August 2013 had an OK race. He started 12th, had a 10th place average running position and finished 15th. He was a top 8 performer through the first 3/4th’s of the race but in the last quarter he was mired back in the mid-teens. In June 2013 Kenseth had a good performance. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, finished 6th and had a 6th place average running position. He could’ve potentially finished better but on a restart with 27 laps to go he fell from 3rd back to 13th. In August 2012 he finished in 17th but his race wasn’t incident free. In that event he had a flat tire while he was running in the top ten. In the first race on the new surface he finished 3rd, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 17 laps.
Recent Similar Track Trends – In the last four races at high-speed intermediate tracks Kenseth has scored the most points and has a 4.8 average finish. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track to Michigan and he might’ve had the best car until he had late problems.
Momentum – Matt Kenseth has five straight top tens and over this stretch he’s scored the 2nd most points and has a 4.6 average finish.

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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting –7th) (Odds To Win – 9/2) (T.T.F.F – 2nd through 10th)
Michigan Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick has been the best driver at Michigan recently. He had the best car in June (PROS Rankings) and in the four Michigan races prior to that event he finished runner-up. This week NASCAR is using a unique rules package that was utilized at Indy in July. At that venue Harvick had the best car but lost the race during a late restart. Across the board at high-speed intermediate tracks this season Harvick has been the driver to beat. In practice Kevin Harvick showed good speed and his crew chief was happy with his lap times.
Michigan History – Nobody has been better than Kevin Harvick in recent races at Michigan. This June he had the best car but his race wasn’t incident free. He had a flat tire under green and that led to him finishing one lap down in 29th. Also in the race it should be noted he earned the 2nd best driver rating, led 63 laps and had the most fastest laps. Prior to the race at Michigan this June Harvick had four straight runner-up results. Last August he had one of the best cars. He finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. In June 2014 Harvick had the best car but his pit strategy at the end was inferior which led to a runner-up result. Also in that event he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (63) and had a 4th place average running position. In 2010 Harvick won his only race at Michigan.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This year at high-speed intermediate tracks minus Michigan where he had the best car but had problems he has a 3.7 average finish, 4.0 average running position and has led 467 laps.
Momentum – In five of the last seven races Harvick has finished in the top 4. His two results outside of that range are an 8th and a 42nd due to an engine failure while he was leading.

Further Recommended Reading – Michigan Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Michigan Advanced Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Fantasy Values, Scouting Report, DraftKings Points From The Last Race At Michigan

3) Joey Logano (Starting –10th) (Odds To Win – 8/1) (T.T.F.F – 1st through 9th)
Michigan Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Joey Logano has been very strong at Michigan. During his tenure with Penske Racing he ranks as one of the strongest performers here as you’ll read below. When you combine his recent strength here with his momentum you know he’ll be in the mix on Sunday. Strategy will be huge on Sunday and I think that’s a strength of the 22 team.
Michigan History – Joey Logano has been a fantasy ace at Michigan since he joined Penske Racing. In the last five Michigan races he has the best average finish (5.4), led the most laps (194), the second best average running position (6.6), the second best driver rating and has had a result in the top 9 every race. In June he didn’t have a stellar car but he managed to bring it home 5th. Last August he had a great car and was Jeff Gordon’s main competitor. In that race he finished 3rd, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the second best driver rating and led the most laps (86). In June 2014 he finished 9th but I thought he had top five potential. In that race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 29 laps. In August 2013 Logano raced his way to victory lane. In addition to finishing first he started 1st, had a 4th place average running position, led 51 laps and earned the best driver rating. His car was strong throughout the duration of the race and if it wasn’t for pit cycles he probably never would’ve left the top five. In June 2013 he had a strong showing. He finished 9th, had a 6th place average running position and led 21 laps.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This year at high-speed intermediate tracks Joey Logano has a 6.3 average finish, 7.3 average running position and has led 226 laps.
Momentum – In four of the last five races Logano has finished in the top four. His one result outside of that range was at Pocono where he ran out of fuel while leading.