Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting –3rd) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Darlington Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick at Darlington. When you combine his Darlington dominance last year with how strong he’s been this year you know he’ll be one of the drivers to beat. It’s been a long time since he’s been to victory lane but he’s due. In practice on Friday Kevin Harvick was very quick. In both sessions he had the best 10 lap average. Over extended runs longer than 10 laps I think he was one of the standouts on the stopwatch. On Sunday Harvick is starting in 3rd.
Darlington History – Last year at Darlington Harvick beat the competition like a drum. He was unstoppable and late pit strategy by Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon could keep him out of victory lane. In the race he started first, finished first, earned the best driver rating, had the best PROS Ranking and led 238 laps. The only driver who really had anything for him over long runs was Jeff Gordon. In 2013 he started in 10th, had an 8th place average running position, finished 5th and earned the 5th best driver rating. In 2012 Harvick had an OK performance. He finished 16th, had a 13th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. In 2011 he was very competitive but Kyle Busch wrecked him late which led to his 17th place finish. In that race it should be noted he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 47 laps.
Momentum – Over the last six races minus Pocono where his engine blew up while he was leading Harvick has a 2.6 average finish, 5.8 average running position and has led 178 laps. Only three times this season has he finished outside the top ten and in all three of those races he had problems while running in the top 3.

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting –10th) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Darlington Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kyle Busch will be one of the drivers to beat at Darlington. He has tremendous momentum entering the event and Darlington has been a great track for him. In recent races here he’s ranked as one of the strongest performers. This week NASCAR is using a low down force package and that will play into his hands. The last time this rules package was utilized (Kentucky) he had the dominant car and went to victory lane. Also in that race it should be noted Joe Gibbs Racing cars took four of the top five finish positions. In practice Kyle Busch had a very quick car. It should be noted that on Sunday he’ll be driving a backup car after getting into the wall hard in Happy Hour. In Final Practice his ten lap average ranked as the 10th best. On Sunday Busch is starting in 10th. 86.4% percent of all Darlington races have been won from a top ten starting position.
Darlington History – Kyle Busch has been very impressive at Darlington. He’s a former winner and over the last five races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps, has the best average running position and a 6.8 average finish. Last year he had a strong showing even though he got into the wall a couple of times. In the race he finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In 2013 he dominated the race but had a late flat tire while leading. That caused him to fade late and finish 6th. Also in the race it should be noted he led 265 laps and had a 1st place average running position. Before he had his late tire problem nobody had anything for him. In 2012 at Darlington he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 4th and led 44 laps. In 2008 Busch went to victory lane and led 169 laps.
Momentum – Over the last seven races Kyle Busch has 3 wins, has scored the 2nd most points and has a 6.4 average finish. His only result outside of the top 11 over this stretch was at Pocono where he ran out of fuel at the end.

Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Qualifying Results

3) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Darlington Quick Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Brad Keselowski is entering the Darlington Bojangles Southern 500 with tremendous momentum with his 7 straight top tens. He’ll need that momentum because Darlington hasn’t been one of his better tracks. In practice Brad Keselowski had pretty good speed over long runs. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 8th best. On Sunday Keselowski is starting on the pole. That has historically been the most proficient starting position for producing winners. Last year Harvick won from this position. On Sunday NASCAR is using a new low down force package. When NASCAR used it at Kentucky he arguably had the best car but he had self-inflicted problems which took him out of contention.
Darlington History – Darlington has been a solid track for Brad Keselowski. It’s not one of his better tracks but he’s been a respectable performer. Last year he finished 17th but he performed better than result. Late in the race he got into the wall and he then had to nurse it home. In the race he had a 7th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. In 2013 his crew chief was suspended and he had a long evening. In that race he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel under green and was involved in an accident. When the checkered flag waved he finished 32nd. In 2012 he started 15th and finished 15th. In the three Darlington races prior to that he had results of 3rd, 7th and 12th.
Momentum – Over the last seven races Keselowski is the only driver who’s finished in the top ten every race, has scored the 3rd most points and had a 6.0 average finish.