Darlington Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Bojangles’ Southern 500

11. Carl Edwards – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

BREAKING NEWS: Carl Edwards showed up on the ten-lap average chart this weekend. That fact in and of itself has me putting the #19 Toyota as a serious contender for the Bojangles’ Southern 500 trophy on Sunday. Seriously, this never happens, and when you pair that with the aero package that NASCAR is using this weekend and the speed that Joe Gibbs Racing has shown over the last couple of months, it’s definitely as if the stars are aligning for Carl Edwards. We’re now seeing him get the finishes that we expected at the beginning of 2015. Better late than never, right? Cousin Carl was 5th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and wound up 7th on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour. He was 13th-best in terms of ten-lap average. Last year at Darlington, Edwards finished 13th, which was actually kind of a down year for him. In the three years before 2014, Carl ended up 7th, 7th, and 2nd at “The Lady in Black.” I think he gets back on the horse this weekend and should be a top 5 threat on Sunday. Momentum-wise, Edwards has posted six top 10s in the last seven Sprint Cup races and hasn’t finished worse than 13th over that span.

12. Ryan Newman – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

“The Rocketman” consistently flies under the radar (especially in my rankings) simply because he isn’t flashy. Ryan Newman is one of those drivers that will go out and get you a 10th to 12th-place finish week in and week out, yet very few people ever pick him. And that all depends on your fantasy strategy. If you’re looking to play it safe, Newman might be a great pick. But if you’re like most people and you want to maximize your points for the week, the #31 Chevrolet probably isn’t even crossing your mind. Now, with all that being said, I’m expecting another solid race out Ryan Newman on Sunday, but I just don’t see him being better than an 8th-place car. The #31 Chevrolet wasn’t flashy on the speed charts this weekend, but Newman has eight top 10s in the last ten races here at Darlington and that says a lot about the kind of driver he is at this track. Momentum-wise, Ryan has back-to-back top 10s thanks to his 10th-place result at Bristol a couple of weeks ago and has ended up 11th or better in four of the last six Sprint Cup races.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The #88 team has lost a step or two over the past couple of months but they’re still a weekly top 10 threat so with a little bit of luck, that could easily turn into a top 5 finish. Junior finished runner-up to Kevin Harvick here at Darlington last season, which is one of his four top 5 results in 20 career starts at “The Lady in Black.” Earnhardt has nine top 10s to his credit here, which equals out to 45% of his starts. Not too bad. This weekend, the #88 Chevrolet was 12th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday before posting the 15th-best lap in Happy Hour. Junior was also 15th in terms of ten-lap average during that final session. This team is one of the best at adjusting on the car during the race and that in and of itself makes Dale Earnhardt, Jr. a threat for a top 10 finish in the Bojangles’ Southern 500. He’s used to starting mid-pack so I’m not overall concerned about the #88 team’s qualifying effort this weekend.

14. Paul Menard – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Paul Menard has been a top 15 machine for the last few months and that paired with the fact that he had a decent qualifying effort here at Darlington on Saturday bumped him up in my rankings quite a bit for the Bojanles’ Southern 500. Looking at the last twelve Sprint Cup races (yes, twelve), Menard has ended up 16th or better in nine of them. In four of the last five, the #27 Chevrolet has finished 14th or better. In some leagues, that type of consistency can really pay dividends for a mid-tier driver like Menard. As mentioned before, Paul will roll off the grid with a decent starting spot on Sunday (12th). He has a couple top 15 results to his credit here at “The Lady in Black” but other than that Menard’s history at this track has been pretty rocky. His career average finish here is 25.9. Now, with that being said, that means a lot of people are going to avoid the #27 on Sunday, which can help you gain points. I’m really looking at Menard as a sleeper pick on Sunday, but you know how picking sleepers goes: it’s risky as hell. On a positive note, the #27 Chevrolet was 6th-fastest in Practice #1 this weekend before winding up 4th on the speed chart in Happy Hour.

15. Greg Biffle – Starts 24th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

If you’re going to put Greg Biffle on any of your fantasy rosters this season, Darlington is probably one of the tracks where I wouldn’t call you crazy. For note, the other venues are the restrictor plate tracks. The reason that I somewhat like The Biff here at “The Lady in Black” is because of his overall success here year over year. In the six Sprint Cup races here since the 2009 season, Biffle has ended up 13th or better in all but one of them, and that includes a 5th-place finish here last season as well as top 10s in 2009 and 2011. Moving from historical finishes to this weekend, the #16 Ford looked great in Practice #1, winding up with the best lap of the session. In Happy Hour, Biffle was 2nd-fastest but didn’t make it to the ten-lap average chart. The #16 team is averaging a finish of 20.3 thus far in the 2015 season, but I think they have the potential to end up better than that this weekend. I have Biffle right around the top 15 heading into this year’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 and depending on how this race plays out, Greg could sneak out a top 10. It’s not probable, but it’s possible.

The Next Ten:

16. Kyle Larson
17. Jamie McMurray
18. Tony Stewart
19. Ryan Blaney
20. Kasey Kahne
21. Clint Bowyer
22. David Ragan
23. Chase Elliott
24. Aric Almirola
25. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.