Dover 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – AAA 400
This AAA 400 race weekend has already been pretty crazy, so it will be interesting to see how the race plays out at Dover International Speedway on Sunday. Weather from Hurricane Joaquin (or maybe not, I’m not really sure) washed out qualifying on Friday, so Matt Kenseth will be on the pole. The full AAA 400 starting lineup can be found here. On Saturday, rain once again messed with the racing schedule. Fortunately, the Sprint Cup drivers were able to get a short practice session in the morning followed by Happy Hour later that day. Those speeds can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out our notes for both: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Two big name drivers are on the outside looking in as far as advancing to the next round of the Chase–Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. I’ll touch on them a little later in this article, but I could see one of them missing the cut.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AAA 400:
11. Jeff Gordon – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jeff Gordon is just one of those drivers that is a very safe pick when we come to Dover. He’s not quite as good as his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, here, but Gordon is solid. For example, even though this #24 team has been struggling quite a bit in 2015, they were still able to pull off a top 10 finish here back in May. Now the question is whether they will be able to do it again here on Sunday. The good news is that Jeff is the defending winner of this fall race and has ended up inside the top 5 in four of the last six Sprint Cup races at “The Monster Mile.” On Sunday, he will start from the 10th position, and while this #24 Chevrolet might not be there in terms of race speed, I’m confident that this team will be able to adjust on the car throughout the day and get Gordon the speed he needs. Before this year’s Chase started I said that Gordon would advance past the first round, and heading into the AAA 400 he has a 12 point cushion. All this #24 team needs is a solid top 15 day on Sunday and they are more than capable of that.
12. Kurt Busch – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kurt Busch and this #41 team has been on a roller coaster ride here over the last couple of months, and if that continues here on Sunday, he should be good for a solid top 10 finish. Let me explain. Over the last five Sprint Cup races, Kurt has ended up: 14th at Bristol, 6th at Darlington, 15th at Richmond, 3rd at Chicago, and 19th at Loudon. So, if that pattern holds up here at Dover on Sunday, we should get a solid run out of the #41 Chevrolet. Kurt Busch has a 17 point cushion as far as advancing in the Chase, so he doesn’t really need to go for the win on Sunday, but rather just have a solid day. Obviously if the #41 Chevrolet is good enough to win, though, this team is going to do everything they can to get to victory lane. In 30 career starts here at Dover, Kurt has one victory (back in 2011) with an average finish of 18.6. Yeah, not that great, but not terrible I guess. Now for the really bad news: Kurt hasn’t ended up better than 12th in a Sprint Cup race at “The Monster Mile” since that victory in 2011. I think that could change here in this year’s AAA 400, though. Kurt will start Sunday’s race from the 7th position and the #41 Chevrolet was a solid top 10 car in both practice sessions on Saturday. Busch even topped the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. It’s a risky pick but there’s quite a bit of upside with Kurt Busch this weekend, and some fantasy racers might be inclined to avoid him on Sunday due to his struggles here at Dover recently.
13. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s that time of year again where Ryan Newman picks up the pace and is even more consistent than usual. In this year’s Chase, “The Rocketman” started off with a 4th-place finish at Chicago and then followed that up with a solid 10th-place run at Loudon last weekend. So, heading into this Sunday’s race at Dover, Newman is 6th in points with an 18-point cushion. Now it’s simply going to take some riding around on Sunday from “The Rocketman” in order for him to advance, which is something that he is more than capable of doing. Newman is a 3-time winner here at Dover International Speedway and owns a career average finish of 13.6 over a total of 27 starts. He ran 18th here back in May but Ryan finished 8th in last fall’s Dover race and also 8th in the 2013 September race at this track. Again, he just turns it up during the Chase. In fact, those are Newman’s only top 10s at Dover since the 2010 season. Will he be able to put together another solid run here on Sunday? It’s certainly possible, but I have “The Rocketman” as a teens driver heading into the AAA 400.
14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Heading into Sunday’s race at Dover, Jamie McMurray has a two-point cushion in terms of advancing into the next round of the Chase, so I think this #1 crew is going to have some work to do if they want to keep battling for this year’s championship. Overall, Dover hasn’t been that great of a track for Jamie McMurray, as he has posted just one top 5 finish in 25 career starts at “The Monster Mile.” With that being said, McMurray ended up 7th here back in May, and he has a pretty good starting spot (11th) for this weekend’s AAA 400 thanks to qualifying getting washed out. All indications from pre-race activities say that Jamie McMurray will simply be a top 15 finisher, though, so I guess we’ll just have to wait and find out if that’s good enough for him to advance.
15. Kasey Kahne – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
There’s going to be a lot of hype around Kasey Kahne this weekend, and he’s probably going to show up on more fantasy rosters than usual on Sunday. The #5 Chevrolet was just super fast on Saturday, and that got a lot of people’s attention. Kahne was the fastest driver in Practice #1 and also had the best ten-lap average during that session. In Happy Hour, the #5 Chevrolet was 3rd on the speed chart and 2nd in ten-lap average. When you pair that speed with the fact that Kahne ran 3rd here back in May, you have a lot of good signs–especially for fantasy racers willing (or needing) to take a sleeper pick this week. With that being said, Kahne’s overall history at Dover is shaky at best, as is the case for him at most tracks we race at. In 23 career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Kasey has posted an average finish of 20.2 and just six top 10s. Kasey is coming off of a top 10 finish at Loudon, though, and has ended up 16th or better in four of the last six Sprint Cup races. I’m conservatively putting Kahne in the teens heading into the AAA 400 but it should be noted that there’s much more speed in that race car.
The Next Ten:
16. Kyle Larson
17. Aric Almirola
18. Paul Menard
19. Clint Bowyer
20. Austin Dillon
21. Greg Biffle
22. Casey Mears
23. Danica Patrick
24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
25. A.J. Allmendinger
