Talladega CampingWorld 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Starting – 5th) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is an excellent fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Talladega CampingWorld.com 500. This year at restrictor plate tracks he’s been the “Pied Piper” and has been the driver to beat. If he didn’t make a poor lane selection decision near the end of the Daytona 500 he could easily be 3 for 3 in the win column this year. One attribute I like about Dale Earnhardt Jr. is his confidence. Following Kansas he was extremely pleased in his teams chassis selection which has seen track time in other plate races this season. Earlier this year Dale Earnhardt Jr. dominated at Talladega and when he got out front it was “game over” for the competition. On Sunday Dale Earnhardt Jr. needs to win or else his Chase is realistically over, so look for him to go all out.
Talladega Track History – Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been very successful at Talladega. He’s won here six times and has finished in the top ten 48% percent of the time. This spring he had a great car that had standout speed. It was so fast drivers had problems making moves on him which is rare on this track type. When the race reached its conclusion he finished first, earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led the most laps (67). Last fall he also performed well but walked away with an asterisk mark 31st place finish. Through the first 2/3rds of the event he arguably had the best car and in the last third he didn’t run quite as well. The race had a late caution and he was then swept up in the carnage. In the race it should be noted he led 31 laps, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In spring 2014 I thought he had the best car but he walked away with a disappointing 26th place finish. That race had a late caution which put him back in the pack and after that he essentially choose to take it easy and no longer race because he felt the “Big One” was looming. In that race he led 26 laps. In fall 2013 he finished runner-up, earned the best driver rating and led 38 laps. The caution came out on the final lap in that event so he never got a chance to make a move for the lead coming to the checker flag.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Nobody has been better than Dale Earnhardt Jr. at plate tracks in 2015. In the 3 races on this track type he has 2 wins and a 1.7 average finish. He started the season with a 3rd in the Daytona 500 and in the last two he’s raced his way to victory lane.
Momentum – Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had a tough time on the track in the Chase. In the playoffs he was one top ten and a 17.8 average finish.

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2) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 3rd) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Jimmie Johnson has been very strong at restrictor plate tracks. On this track type since the Generation 6 car rolled out he ranks #1 in many important statistical categories fantasy racers look at (best average running position, most laps led and the most top fives). This year at plate tracks he’s been a fantasy ace and has swept the top five. Because of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s dominance I think he’s flying somewhat below the radar. In the last two races at plate tracks he’s finished runner-up. Since Jimmie Johnson is eliminated from the Chase he may take on the roll of being Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s wingman which certainly isn’t a bad thing.
Talladega Track History – Jimmie Johnson has been very strong at Talladega but it’s important to note he has a few recent asterisk mark results. This spring Jimmie Johnson had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 50 laps. He was Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s wing man for about the final 30 laps and he never made a move on him for the win. Last fall at Talladega I would argue he likely had the best car but he made some poor lane selection decisions at the end during restarts and as a result he finished 24th. In that race it should be noted he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led a race high 84 laps. In spring 2014 he also had a good car but walked away with an asterisk mark 23rd place finish. While he was running around 10th with 14 laps to go he had a flat tire and spun. In that race he earned the 5th best driver rating. In fall 2013 Johnson had the best car in the field. He led the most laps, tied Earnhardt Jr. for the best average running position and finished 13th. That result can be chalked up to poor decision making at the end. In May 2013 I also thought he once again had the best car. In that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and finished 5th.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This season at plate tracks Jimmie Johnson has scored the 2nd most points, has a 3.0 average finish and is the only other driver besides Dale Earnhardt Jr. who’s finished in the top five every race.
Momentum – At Kansas Jimmie Johnson finished 3rd. That marked his first top five since Daytona in July. That also put a halt to terrible back to back results (41st Dover & 39th Charlotte).

Further Recommended Reading – Talladega Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Talladega Qualifying Results, Talladega PROS Rankings, Talladega Asterisk Mark Report, 2015 Restrictor Plate Track Stats, DraftKings Points From The Last Race At Talladega, Talladega Scouting Report, Talladega Odds To Win

3) Matt Kenseth (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Matt Kenseth is an elite plate racer and on Sunday he needs to win or else his Chase is over. Talent wise on this track type he ranks among the best. When he gets to the front of the pack he makes his car very wide and is hard to get around. If he gets to the front of the field on Sunday he’ll fight very hard to remain there. This season at plate tracks he’s had a tough time but one could argue he’s due for a little good luck. Since 2012 at this venue he’s finished in the top eight 57% percent of the time.
Talladega Track History – Matt Kenseth runs well at Talladega and is a former winner. This spring he didn’t have a great race and finished 25th. He ran well for much of the event but in the last quarter he was a complete non-factor. That can largely be attributed to the single file nature at the end. Last fall he had a great performance and charged up to a runner-up result at the end. In that race he was a “where did he come from” driver. In spring 2014 it looked like he had top five potential but late in the race he was taken out when Brad Keselowski got loose and spun near the front of the field. In fall 2013 at Talladega he had a good car in the first half of the race, in the second half he lost the handle of his car and was very loose. In that race he led 32 laps, earned the 8th best driver rating and finished 20th. In spring 2013 at Talladega Matt Kenseth had an impressive performance. If he would’ve managed the draft a little better at the end he likely would’ve won. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 142 laps and finished 8th. In 2012 at Talladega he finished 1st and 3rd.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Matt Kenseth has had a tough season at plate tracks and his best finish is 23rd. Last year he scored the 10th most points on this track type. In 2012 he scored the most points.
Momentum – Matt Kenseth has had trouble in the last two races. At Kansas he was spun while leading late and at Charlotte he looked very strong until pit strategy put him back in the pack which led to him getting into the wall. In the four races prior to that he scored the most points and had a 3.5 average finish.