AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Greg Biffle – Texas has been a great track for Greg Biffle. Since 2008 he has the best average finish (7.4), is tied for the best average running position (9.4), has the 3rd best driver rating and has led 453 laps. Only once over this stretch has he finished outside the top 13 and unfortunately that came in this springs race. In April he didn’t run well and finished 17th. In the race it should be noted he had a 21st place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. Last fall at Texas Biffle walked away with an asterisk mark result. Outside of the last 100 laps he never really ran higher than 18th. He largely owes his good result to pit strategy and how the end of the race played out. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th, had a 19th place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In spring 2014 he had one of his best performances of the season. He started in 4th, finished 6th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. In fall 2013 he finished 12th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. His 12th place finish snapped a streak of 10 consecutive top ten finishes at Texas. In spring 2013 at Texas he also had a good car. He started back in 35th and cracked the top ten by lap 100. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th. In the race I don’t think he was quite 4th place good. He was a driver who benefited from a caution during the pit cycle with about 50 laps to go. If that didn’t happen he likely would’ve finished around 10th. In his spring 2012 victory he started in 3rd, had a second place average running position and led 90 laps. It should be noted that I don’t think he had the best car. In that race he was aided by Ryan Newman holding up the leader Jimmie Johnson which allowed Biffle to take the lead. In fall 2012 he finished a little lower than I think he should’ve (10th). In 2005 Biffle won his first race at Texas. (Yahoo B Driver)
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Clint Bowyer – 1.5 mile tracks haven’t been a strength of Bowyer’s this season. In the first 7 races at tracks of this length he finished between 19th and 24th. In the last two he’s had outlier results. At Charlotte he finished 11th and at Kansas he crashed and finished 40th. In his career at Texas he’s performed pretty well but he’s had poor results in the last two races. This spring at Texas he didn’t have a good showing. He started 27th and finished 22nd. It was a tough race for him. On lap 3 Justin Allgaier got into the back of him and it dropped him from 27th to 34th in the running order. Then around lap 58 he made an unscheduled pit stop for a loose wheel which dropped him from 30th to 39th, one lap down. On lap 84 he made another unscheduled pit stop for a loose wheel which dropped him 3 laps down. With all of his issues I guess you can say his 22nd place result was pretty good. Last fall he was never competitive. He started in 24th, had a 20th place average running position, earned the 22nd best driver rating and finished 28th. At Texas in spring 2014 he performed fairly well. In the race he started in 25th, had a 10th place average running position, earned the 9th best driver rating and finished 8th. It should be noted Bowyer was better than his result. With 80 laps to go he had a missing lug nut during a pit stop and as a result it dropped him from 5th to 15th. In fall 2013 at Texas he started in 26th and drove up to a 10th place finish. In that race he also had a 10th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. In spring 2013 he finished 15th but his car was better than that. I would estimate he was about 10th place good but a caution during the pit cycle with about 50 laps to go cost him several positions. It dropped him from 10th to about 18th. In fall 2012 he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and finished 6th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Further Recommended Reading – Texas Top Tier Elite Picks, Texas Front Runner Rankings, Who will win the AAA Texas 500?, Texas Scouting Report, Loop Data Box Score From The Last Race At Texas
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