Texas 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – AAA Texas 500

Hey, in case you didn’t know, Matt Kenseth is suspended this week. It sure hasn’t been talked about at all. Anyway, we have the AAA Texas 500 this weekend. On Friday, Brad Keselowski won the pole and the full starting lineup can be found here. Then, on Saturday, there were two practice sessions scheduled, but after 5 hours, NASCAR still couldn’t dry the track so we didn’t get either of them in. So to say this race could get interesting is an understatement. No practice definitely makes it hard to make fantasy picks, but not impossible. Starting position usually doesn’t matter here at Texas but it has a little more value this week with limited track time.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AAA Texas 500:

1. Brad Keselowski – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

The white and red Deuce was super fast off the truck this weekend and that should worry the competition in the garage area because it’s not very common. A typical weekend for this #2 team is to start out with better-than-average speed and then work on it to get the car into the top 10. This weekend at Texas, however, Keselowski was fastest in 1st practice and then went out and won the pole on Friday. After Martinsville, BK is 24 points behind the cutoff line and you could probably consider him to be in must-win territory if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive. The good news for Brad is that Penske Racing has been great here at Texas over the last few years, and I have a feeling that Roger Penske wants to make a statement with this race on Sunday after what happened to his teams at Martinsville. Keselowski has never won at Texas Motor Speedway but he has finished 9th or better in five of the last six races here, and that includes four finishes of 6th or better. The Race Engineer of the #2 team (Brian Wilson) tweeted that they are peaking at the right time and I do not disagree. If they can get to victory lane here on Sunday, there’s no doubt in my mind that Keselowski will have a legitimate shot at the championship in Homestead.

2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Last weekend at Martinsville, quite a few people were concerned about Kevin Harvick and his apparent lack of speed–myself included. While it was obvious that the #4 Chevrolet was still a solid pick for last week’s race, it is also clear that this team has been lacking a bit in the speed department as of late. In fact, Harvick hasn’t finished inside the top 5 is almost a month; the last time he did was back in Charlotte on October 11. This weekend at Texas, though, I’d say there’s a pretty high probability that “The Closer” gets back on track and is at least challenging for a top 5 when the checkered flag waves on the AAA Texas 500. This has been a very good race track for Harvick as of late, as he finished 2nd here back in April and also ran runner-up in this event one year ago. Surprisingly, Kevin has never made it to victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway in his 25 career starts, but it’s only a matter of time before that happens. Harvick’s fantasy value has gone down since the Chase started due to his lackuluster finishes but the #4 Chevrolet (and team) is just too good to avoid for very long. If you’re in an allocation league and only have one Harvick start left, though, go ahead and save that for Phoenix next week because he is unstoppable out there in the desert.

3. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Well NASCAR came down so hard on Matt Kenseth (you can read what I think about that by clicking here) that the rest of the garage got the message loud and clear: do not mess with those that are still in the Chase. Some think that we could see some more on-track antics play out this weekend at Texas, but I just don’t see that happening whatsoever. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if other drivers gave guys like Joey Logano a little more room to race in this weekend’s AAA Texas 500. With the events at Martinsville, I believe that Logano is now in a must-win situation at Texas to make it on to Homestead. Barring mechanical issues with some of the other Chasers, he’s going to need a win to advance, and nobody is going to touch Kevin Harvick at Phoenix. The good thing for Joey is that he has been great at this track since joining Penske in 2013, with four top 5 finishes in the last five races at Texas, including a win in the 2014 spring event. Logano is more than capable of pulling off a win here on Sunday. He ran 4th here back in April and led 19 laps. And, as I said before, Joey doesn’t have to worry about being wrecked this weekend, so he should be a lock for a top 5 finish.