Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Jeff Gordon (Starting – 5th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – The “Drive For Five” started over a decade ago and on Sunday in his final race Jeff Gordon can complete it. I think we’ll see an ultra-motivated Jeff Gordon at Homestead. Nobody wants to win this race more than him. I think he has a solid chance to accomplish that task. Last year at Homestead if he didn’t use poor pit strategy at the end he could’ve won. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he hasn’t been the most competitive driver but keep in mind Homestead is a little different than the other venues. The surface is tremendously worn out and that plays to his strength. On Sunday Gordon is starting in 5th. Is it an omen for the “Drive For Five”? Also it’s important to note Harvick won from that position last year. In Happy Hour Jeff Gordon was very pleased with his car and his ten lap average ranked as the best.
Homestead Track History – Jeff Gordon runs very well at Homestead. Since 2007 he’s only finished outside the top 11 once and that was due to an engine failure. In the last four Homestead races Jeff Gordon has been very competitive. Over this four race stretch he has the best driver rating, best average running position (5.8) and the second best average finish (7.5). Last year at Homestead Jeff Gordon had a great car and I would argue it was the best (PROS Rankings). He walked away with an Asterisk Mark 10th place finish after making some poor pit strategy decisions near the end. In the race Gordon started on the pole, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 161 laps. His strength in the race was being good over long runs. In 2013 he had a good car but he wasn’t nearly as strong. In that event he earned the 8th best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position and finished 11th. In 2012 Jeff Gordon was top five strong but that race came down to fuel mileage and he had enough fuel to go the distance. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 1st, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In four of the five Homestead races prior to that he finished between 4th and 6th. 
Recent Similar Track Trends – In the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks Jeff Gordon has finished 8th, 9th and 10th. Chicagoland is similar to Homestead and he had a great shot to win that race but was at a tire disadvantage at the end.
Momentum – In the Chase Jeff Gordon has scored the most points, has a 7.8 average finish and is one of three drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race.

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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 13th) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Kevin Harvick, the defending Sprint Cup champion will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400. He’s a clutch performer and he comes up big when the stakes are the highest. Heading into the weekend he already has one big advantage on much of the competition. In October he took part in testing at this venue. That extra track time is a big plus. This year at 1.5 mile tracks that correlate to success at Homestead Harvick has been a great performer and has arguably been the best as you’ll read below. Homestead is a great track for Harvick and it ranks as one of his very best. On Sunday Harvick is starting in 13th. Moving up through the field shouldn’t be an issue for him. He has a fast car that has good speed no matter what line he drives in the corners. In practice #2 he had the 2nd best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour he was at a tire deficit and his ten lap average ranked as the 16th best.
Homestead Track History – Homestead is a great track for Kevin Harvick. His average finish is 7.6 and he currently has 7 straight top tens. Over this seven race stretch he has the best average finish (5.0), second best driver rating and the second best average running position (8.7). Last year in the season finale Kevin Harvick won his only race at Homestead and raced his way to the championship. In that race he ran well throughout the event. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 54 laps. Early in the race he paced himself and took care of his equipment but near the end he threw caution to the wind and drove hard. In 2013 Harvick finished 10th and led 8 laps. He had a great car despite facing some adversity. Near the midpoint its speculated his tires were on backwards and that led to him short pitting. In 2012 Harvick started in 23rd and finished 8th. His next four most recent Homestead results are 8th, 3rd, 3rd and 2nd.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This year at 1.5 mile tracks minus Chicagoland where he had problems while leading Kevin Harvick has a 5.0 average finish and a 4.9 average running position. For the season at these venues he has the best driver rating, ran the most fastest laps and has led the 3rd most laps.
Momentum – In the Chase Kevin Harvick has the best driver rating and performance wise he’s been top five good every race. It should be noted that in four of the nine races he had problems which led to a misleading result.

Further Recommended Reading – Homestead Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Homestead Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, Scouting Report, Odds To Win, 2015 1.5 Mile Track Stats

3) Joey Logano (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Joey Logano might not be in the Chase anymore but that doesn’t make him a bad fantasy option. I could easily see him playing the role of spoiler in an “If Matt Kenseth didn’t wreck me I would be champion” sort of way. This year at 1.5 mile tracks that correlate to success at Homestead he’s been an elite performer and has arguably been the best in the series. On paper Homestead hasn’t been one of his better tracks but in his two races in Penske equipment he’s run well here. In October Logano took part in testing at Homestead which helps give him an advantage. In Happy Hour Joey Logano appeared to have a good car and his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best.
Homestead Track History – Homestead hasn’t been one of Joey Logano’s better tracks. Since 2009 minus 2010 where he was involved in a wreck Logano has a 16.2 average finish and a 15.0 average running position. Last season Logano had top five potential but walked away with an asterisk mark 16th place finish. That lack luster result is the product of his team having problems during two late pit stops back to back. During his second pit stop problem his car fell off the jack which dropped him deep in the running order. Even with his problems he still earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In 2013 Logano had his only top ten at Homestead and walked away with an 8th place finish. Also in that race he earned the 9th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In 2012 he made his final start for JGR at Homestead. In that race he won the pole but started in the rear of the field after wrecking in practice. When the checkered flag waved he finished 14th.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This season at 1.5 mile tracks minus Texas #2 Joey Logano has scored the most points, has a 5.1 average finish and a 5.2 average running position.
Momentum – Since Charlotte minus Martinsville and Texas where he had problems Joey Logano has a 1.5 average finish.