AJ Allmendinger 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
AJ Allmendinger 2015 Stats: Points Finish 22nd, 0 Wins, 2 poles, 0 Top Fives, 3 Top Tens, Average Finish 23.1, Average Running Position 23.2, Laps Led 55, Driver Rating 65.95
Strengths – AJ Allmendinger is a road course ace. He’s capable of winning at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen if his equipment doesn’t let him down. Allmendinger also runs well at shorter flat tracks.
Weaknesses – Intermediate tracks which make up the core of the schedule are weak spots for AJ Allmendinger. Big flat tracks also haven’t been friendly venues.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Low
Intermediate tracks aren’t an area of strength for the #47 team. In fact I would argue it’s the track type where they’re the least likely to attain success. Last year in the 17 races on this track type Allmendinger had a 22.4 average result and 64.7% percent of the time he finished outside the top twenty. In 2015 a typical good day for the 47 team at intermediate tracks was a result within a few deviations of 20th.
Last year on this track type Allmendinger scored the 21st most points. In 2014 he scored the 24th most points.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
At flat tracks AJ Allmendinger is better at the shorter-flats. At those venues he’s capable of coming home with a low double digit finish. Since 2010 between Phoenix and New Hampshire he has a 16.0 average finish and an 18.6 average running position. In 47% percent of his starts over this stretch he’s finished in the top fifteen. In 74% percent of these starts he’s finished in the top twenty. Between the two shorter flat tracks I like him more at New Hampshire.
At big flat tracks he’s not competitive. Last August at Pocono when fuel mileage entered the equation he walked away with an asterisk mark 7th place finish. In the 9 Pocono races prior to that he had a best finish of 19th and a 28.6 average finish. In the last four races at Indy he’s finished between 18th and 23rd.
AJ Allmendinger Fantasy NASCAR Portal
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium
AJ Allmendinger isn’t a bad driver at short tracks. At these venues he’s a driver who has solid sleeper value. Between the three tracks Martinsville is easily his best.
At Martinsville he’s run well in recent years. In 7 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top 14. Last year he ran well in both races. In the fall he finished 11th and in the spring he finished dead last because of an oil leak. Before his issue he was running in the top ten. In 2014 at that venue he finished 9th and 11th.
At Richmond he’s also had some success. In the last two fall races he finished 23rd and 24th. In his other 8 races since fall 2010 he’s finished between 6th and 16th.
Bristol was rough on him last year and he finished 26th and 34th. In four of the five races prior to last year he finished between 12th and 17th.
Although his fantasy value is listed as medium, I’ll note it’s a high-medium.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
AJ Allmendinger didn’t have the greatest season at plate tracks last year. In 3 of the 4 races he finished between 17th and 21st.
Last year at Daytona Allmendinger had results of 20th and 21st. In his four Daytona races prior to last year he had a 34.5 average finish.
At Talladega last year Allmendinger had results of 17th and 36th. His overall Talladega average finish is 23.9.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
AJ Allmendinger is a phenomenal road course racer. If he were in better equipment I would say he would have elite fantasy value. Last year at road courses equipment issues led to misleading results in both races.
Last year at Watkins Glen AJ Allmenidnger had a strong car. He started on the pole and led 21 laps. When the checkered flag waved he finished 24th. In that event he had battery issues. In 2014 at Watkins Glen he won his first career race. At Watkins Glen minus 2015 he has a 7.8 average finish.
At Sonoma he’s had a fast car in the last two races but has back to back 37th place finishes. Last year at Sonoma he started on the pole and had top five speed but he had some fuel related issue. In 2014 he also had top five speed but his team had poor pit strategy and then he later had contact with Dale Earnhardt Jr. which caused heavy damage to the #47. In the four Sonoma races prior to that he had a 10.5 average finish.
