Aric Almirola 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Aric Almirola 2015 Stats: Points Finish 17th, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 top Fives, 6 Top Tens, Average Finish 17.9, Average Running Position 20.7, Laps Led 3, Driver Rating 72.9
Strengths – Aric Almirola is a very solid driver. He’s not flashy, but he’s proven he can get the job done. Look for his best afternoons to come at shorter flat tracks, short tracks and intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses – Big flat tracks and road courses likely won’t be high points for him in 2016.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
At intermediate tracks Aric Almirola is a solid driver who can prove a difference maker for you depending on what type of fantasy league you participate in. Last year on this track type he had a 15.7 average finish and scored the 14th most points. At these venues he finished in the top ten about a quarter of the time, finished in the top fifteen about two-thirds of the time and finished in the top twenty about three-fourths of the time. His only finish lower than 26th on this track type in 2015 came in the season finale at Homestead where he was taken out in a wreck. Minus that incident he would have a 14.1 average for the season. In 2016 he might regress a little on this track type but I would look for him to finish within a few deviations of 15th on most afternoons.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Last year at flat tracks in a typical trouble free afternoon Aric Almirola was typically a mid to high teens performer. In four of the seven races on this track type he finished in the top twenty. In 2015 on this track type his average finish was a lowly 26.6. That was weighed down heavily by two 43rd place finishes and a 38th.
On this track type look for Almirola to be at his best at the shorter-flats such as Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last fall at Phoenix he finished 10th. He now has 8 straight results between 10th and 19th there. At New Hampshire he’s finished in the top 15 half the time over the last six races.
At big flat tracks the most likely scenario is a high-teen to low-twenties finish.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Aric Almirola is a solid sleeper at short tracks. He’s capable of sneaking in a good result at all three venues.
At Martinsville Almirola has a patient “attack the track” driving style which has led to some success for him. Last year he finished 12th and 16th at that venue. In his last eight Martinsville races he has a 13.6 average finish. His worst result over this stretch is 21st.
Bristol hasn’t been a bad venue for him. Since August 2013 minus an August 2014 wreck he has a 12.0 average finish and a 13.0 average running position. In 2015 he finished in the teens twice (13th and 17th).
At Richmond he’s also run well and minus his first two starts he’s finished in the top twenty every race and has a 13.16 average finish. Last fall he was very impressive and crossed the finish line in 4th.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Aric Almirola’s lone victory came on this track type at Daytona in summer of 2014. Last year on this track type he was solid and finished in the teens in three of the four races. I would describe his fantasy value as a high-medium.
In summer 2014 Aric Almirola won at Daytona. That race was a super high-attrition event and it was also rain shortened. Last year he had results of 15th and 34th (wrecked).
In 2015 at Talladega Almirola finished 15th and 16th. Since 2012 at that venue minus a fall 2013 wreck Almirola has a 15.3 average finish.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium
At road courses Aric Almirola is generally a mid-teens to low-twenties performer. At Watkins Glen in three of his last four races he’s finished between 16th and 18th. At Sonoma last year he had his best result on a road course and finished 14th. All of his other four results there are in the twenties. His next two most recent Sonoma results are finishes of 20th and 23rd.
