Matt Kenseth 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Matt Kenseth 2015 Stats: Points Finish 15th, 5 Wins, 4 Poles, 12 top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Finish 14.3, Average Running Position 11.9, Laps Led 927, Driver Rating 99.0
Strengths – In 2016 I expect big things from Matt Kenseth and the #20 team. Look for Kenseth to be at his best at intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flat tracks.
Weaknesses – Matt Kenseth’s fantasy production has really dropped off at plate tracks. I believe in his talent at those venues but for whatever reason he hasn’t been as strong. Also make sure you steer clear of him at Sonoma.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Matt Kenseth is an elite intermediate track performer. He’s won at every venue on this track type except Atlanta. Last year he ranked as one of the better drivers on this track type. At these venues minus Dover #1 & Charlotte #2 he had a 10.1 average finish, 9.9 average running position and led 410 laps.
In 2016 NASCAR will implement a new rules package and I think that will play to his strengths, so he might be even better. Also I’ll note that Joe Gibbs Racing is perhaps the best organization in NASCAR at being able to adapt to rules changes quicker than others. At Kentucky when those rules were utilized he finished 5th and earned the 6th best driver rating.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Matt Kenseth is a very strong flat track driver. Last year he participated in six races on this track type (missed the fall Phoenix race) and had the best average finish in the series (6.2). Twice last year at flat tracks Matt Kenseth made a trip to victory lane. He won at Pocono in August and New Hampshire in the Chase. It’s important to note in both of those races if fuel didn’t enter the equation he wouldn’t have won. In five of his six races on this track type last year he finished in the top ten. His lone non-top ten finish was at Phoenix in the spring and in that event he ran well but got a speeding penalty which hampered his afternoon.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
I like Matt Kenseth at all three short tracks. In 2016 he’s more than capable of winning at any of them. Last year he won at two of the three venues.
Between the three short tracks I like him the most at Bristol. Last year he won in the spring and finished 42nd in August after his engine couldn’t go the distance. At the time of his engine failure he was running in the top five. Since Bristol was reconfigured a very strong case could be made that he’s been the strongest performer there.
At Martinsville Kenseth is an elite performer. Last fall he was very strong at that venue but was wrecked while running in the top five. In the four Martinsville races prior to that event he finished between 2nd and 6th.
Richmond has been a great venue for him since he joined Joe Gibbs Racing. In September 2015 at that venue he thumped the competition in en route to victory lane leading 352 laps. In five of the six races prior to that event he finished between 5th and 7th.
Matt Kenseth Fantasy NASCAR Portal
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
I like Matt Kenseth at plate tracks but he’s dropped off some performance wise. A few years ago I would argue he was the best plate racer in the series. Last year on this track type he just wasn’t that strong with three finishes in the twenties and one result in the thirties. For the season on this track type he had a 27.3 average finish.
At Daytona since 2013 he has one top ten and his other five finishes are results of 20th or worse. In the three races prior to his cold streak he had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Talladega is the other plate track on the schedule and he’s in a similar cold streak there. In the last five races there he was one top ten and his other four results are 20th or worse. In his three races prior to his cold streak his results were 1st, 3rd and 8th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Road courses aren’t a strength for Kenseth but he’s certainly not a bad performer on this track type. Between the two road courses he’s better at Watkins Glen. In three of the last four races at that venue he’s finished in the top ten. Before this recent four race stretch he had five straight results between 12th and 14th.
Sonoma isn’t a bright spot on the schedule for Kenseth. In sixteen races at that venue he’s only finished in the top ten once. Last year he finished 21st there. In 2014 he was top ten strong but was wrecked while running well. In the three races prior to that he finished in the teens.
