Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2015 Stats: Points Finish 12th, 3 Wins, 0 Poles, 16 Top Fives, 23 Top Tens, Average Finish 11.3, Average Running Position 12.8, Laps Led 287, Driver Rating 96.88
Strengths – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is strong across all the different track types. At any track on the schedule he’s capable of finishing well. In 2016 I would look for him to be at his best at plate tracks, big flat tracks and short tracks.
Weaknesses – Although he’s greatly improved as a road course racer I’m still a little apprehensive to pick him at those venues. Also I’ll note I’m a little nervous that this year he’ll have a new chief engineer. Massive rules changes are being implemented this year and losing key personal isn’t ideal.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great season at intermediate tracks in 2015. He didn’t win any races but when he avoided trouble he ranked as one of the strongest performers. Last year at these venues he scored the 6th most points and had an 11.0 average finish. In the 17 races at these venues last year he finished in the top five 41% percent of the time and in the top ten 65% percent of the time.
In his 2015 incident free races on this track type (minus Homestead, Charlotte #2, Kansas #2 and Kentucky) his average finish was 7.1. The new rules package brings uncertainty but I think he’ll be just fine and still rank among the elite on this track type.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a good flat track driver. Last year he had quite a few problems at these venues but performance wise he was strong. In his incident free races on this track type in 2015 he finished in the top 11 every race.
Last year Earnhardt Jr. was very strong at shorter flat tracks. At these venues last year he had results of 1st, 5th, 25th and 43rd. His 25th place finish (New Hampshire #2) deserves an asterisk mark because in that race he was top ten strong but ran out of fuel in the closing laps. His 43rd place finish was due to a wreck in the spring Phoenix race.
At big flat tracks Earnhardt Jr. is a very capable driver. Since Pocono was repaved he belongs in the conversation of being the strongest performer. Last year he finished 4th and 11th. In 2014 he pulled off the season sweep.
At Indy last year he had problems and finished 22nd. In the three races prior to that he finished 9th, 6th and 4th.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Fantasy NASCAR Portal
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a strong short track driver. Last year on this track type he didn’t run the best in the first event of the season at each venue but in the second trip to each track he ran well. In the second races at short tracks in 2015 he had a 6.0 average finish and earned had the 3rd best driver rating. For the season at short tracks he had a 14.0 average finish and scored the 10th most points. In the four seasons prior to last year on this track type he accumulated the 6th, 5th, 5th and 7th most points. Between the three short tracks I would rank Martinsville as his best.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the class of the field at plate tracks last year. He scored the most points by a wide margin, won twice, finished in the top five every race and had a 1.8 average finish.
Last year at Daytona Dale Earnhardt Jr. had an incredible car. In the Daytona 500 he might’ve had the best car but he made a poor lane selection decision near the end and finished 3rd as a result. In July he dominated the race and won from the pole leading 96 laps. In five of the last six Daytona races Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top ten.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be well deserved early favorite in the “Great American Race.” In the last four Daytona 500’s he hasn’t finished below 3rd.
At Talladega last year he finished 1st and 2nd. Between the combined events he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (128) and had the best average running position (5.0). In his career at Talladega he’s been to victory lane six times and has finished in the top ten 50% percent of the time.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Dale Earnhardt Jr. will never be known as a road course ringer but he’s certainly improved in recent years. Last year on this track type he scored the 7th most points and had a 9.0 average finish. In 2014 he scored the 3rd most points.
At Watkins Glen he’s had parallel races the last two years. In both 2014 and 2015 he started 7th and finished 11th. Prior to those two events he had been in a very tough stretch.
In the last two races at Sonoma Dale Earnhardt Jr. has back to back top tens. Last year he finished 7th. In 2014 he finished 3rd. Prior to these two races he never had a result in the top ten at Sonoma.
