Denny Hamlin 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Denny Hamlin 2015 Stats: Points Finish 9th, 2 Wins, 3 Poles, 14 top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Finish 13.6, Average Running Position 13.1, Laps Led 529, Driver Rating 95.14
Strengths – Denny Hamlin is a very talented driver. Look for his best days to come at short tracks, flat tracks, aged intermediates and the first three plate races of the season.
Weaknesses – Road courses have become a glaring weakness on Hamlin’s resume. In the last six years at serpentine tracks he hasn’t finished better than 18th.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Denny Hamlin is a strong performer at intermediate tracks. Last year on this track type in his incident free races (minus Kansas #1 and Texas #2) he had an 11.2 average finish, 10.7 average running position and led 320 laps. Also over these 15 races he finished in the top five 47% percent of the time and in the top ten 60% percent of the time. It should be noted at intermediate tracks the more the surface is worn out the better he typically performs. In the Chase at 1.5 mile tracks minus Texas #2 where he had fuel pickup problems Hamlin had a 4.25 average finish.
In 2016 I expect Hamlin to remain “Elite” on this track type. Last year at Kentucky and Darlington when the new base rules package was utilized Hamlin finished 3rd in both races.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Denny Hamlin is a strong flat track driver. Last year on this track type minus the first two races at shorter flat tracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire) he was pretty close to “money in the bank.”
Last year at the shorter flats he lacked speed in the first races of the season. In the second events at those venues he finished 2nd and 8th.
At big flat tracks last year he ran very well. He finished 5th at Indy, 10th at Pocono #1 and 22nd at Pocono #2. In Pocono #2 he was top five strong but ran out of fuel at the end.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Denny Hamlin is a short track master. He’s been to victory lane at all three venues and he’s somebody who should always be on your short list of fantasy options. Last year at short tracks minus the spring Bristol race where he only completed about 20 laps before his neck hurt, Hamlin had a 7.0 average finish and a 10.0 average running position.
Hamlin’s best short track is Martinsville. In his 20 starts at that venue he’s won a quarter of the time and has finished in the top ten 80% percent of the time. Last year at the “Paper Clip” he finished 1st and 3rd.
Bristol has been a good track for Hamlin. He’s run very well there so don’t be fooled by some of his misleading results. Last fall he started on the pole, finished 3rd and led 54 laps. In the spring race he only completed about 20 laps before he called it a day and Erik Jones took the wheel for the remainder of the race. In August 2014 he had a great car but was wrecked while leading. In spring 2014 he finished 6th. One strength of Hamlin’s at Bristol is his qualifying prowess. In 3 of the last 5 Bristol races he’s started on the pole.
At Richmond Hamlin has been somewhat off his game recently. Last fall he had his best race in a few years and finished 6th. In the four races prior to that he finished in either 21st or 22nd.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Denny Hamlin is an elite talent at restrictor plate tracks. Last year at plate tracks he was very successful. His average finish at these venues minus his fall Talladega roof flap fiasco was 5.3. In 2014 on this track type he accumulated the most points in the series.
Daytona has been a great venue for Hamlin. Currently at that venue he was four straight top six finishes. Last year he recorded finishes of 3rd and 4th. In the last four Daytona races he has a 3.75 average finish.
Last fall at Talladega Hamlin had roof flap problems which caused him to finish a few laps down that knocked him out of the Chase. When that race reached it’s conclusion he finished 37th. In spring 2015 he finished 9th. In spring 2014 Denny Hamlin went to victory lane.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Low
Avoid Denny Hamlin like the plague at road courses. They simply aren’t good venues for him anymore.
At Sonoma he’s been bad for quite some time. Last year he finished 18th which marked his best result since 2010. Over the last six Sonoma races he has a 28.8 average finish and a 22.5 average running position.
Watkins Glen has been just as cruel to him. His best result over the last six years there is 19th and his average finish over this stretch is 29.5.
