Martin Truex Jr. 2016 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Martin Truex Jr. 2015 Stats: Points Finish 4th, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 8 Top Fives, 22 Top Tens, Average Finish 12.2, Average Running Position 11.3, Laps Led 567, Driver Rating 99.57
Strengths – Martin Truex Jr. had a career year in 2015. He showed potential on every track type. In 2016 I expect him to have his best afternoons at intermediate tracks and road courses.
Weaknesses – Martin Truex Jr. has historically been a volatile fantasy driver. Over the year’s he’s been extremely prone to bad luck.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. was very strong at intermediate tracks in 2015. They were the “bread and butter” of the 78 team. At these venues last year he had an 8.2 average finish, 7.3 average running position, led 408 laps and earned the 4th best driver rating. In the 17 races held on this track type he had 5 top fives, 12 top tens, 16 top fifteens and finished in the top twenty every race. From a career perspective I would argue intermediate tracks are his best track type.
In 2016 I think it will be extremely tough for Martin Truex Jr. to continue to perform at such a high level. It was a career year for him and his results weren’t exactly typical. I also think the old rules package was very favorable for him. In the races last year when the 2016 rules package was used he finished 17th (Kentucky) and 9th (Darlington).
One huge factor pertaining to his performance on this track type next year is his manufacture change. Although Joe Gibbs Racing is an elite organization I could see it impacting the #78 team negatively early in the season.
2016 Printable PDF NASCAR Schedule
Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. had his best year ever at flat tracks last season. At these venues in 2015 he scored the 3rd most points and had a 9.3 average finish. At every flat track last year he had at least one top ten.
Last year at Pocono in the spring he raced his way to victory lane. In August he was top 3 strong but had to pit for fuel at the end. Indy is the other big flat track on the schedule and last year he finished 4th.
At the shorter flat tracks last year he found some success and finished between 7th and 14th every race. At New Hampshire he was top ten good in both races and finished 8th and 12th. At Phoenix last year he finished 7th and 14th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Last year short tracks Truex Jr. had volatile fantasy value. In the six races on this track type he had three results between 6th and 10th, and three results between 28th and 32nd.
Martinsville was his best short track last year. At that venue he walked away with a pair of 6th place finishes. It’s important to note that level of success from him there isn’t typical. In the five Martinsville races prior to 2015 he had a 27.6 average finish.
At Richmond he’s been pretty good lately. In three of the last five races there he’s finished in the top 10. Last fall he had top ten potential but had problems which led to his 32nd place finish. In spring 2015 he finished 10th.
Bristol is the short track I would be the most comfortable picking him. It fits his driving style better than the other two. Last year he had problems in both races and finished 28th and 29th. In the last five Bristol races he has a best finish of 20th and a 29.6 average finish. Prior to that cold streak he had success.
Martin Truex Jr. Fantasy NASCAR Portal
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. was a pleasant surprise at plate tracks last year. In three of the four events he finished in the top ten. In his incident free races he finished between 5th and 8th.
At Daytona last year Truex Jr. recorded finishes of 8th and 38th. His 8th was in the Daytona 500. During Speed Weeks he was a standout performer and might’ve had the best car over those early events. In July he was in a cold streak and was collected in a wreck.
At Talladega last year he swept the top ten with results of 5th and 7th. Over the last twelve Talladega races he has 9 top thirteen finishes.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Martin Truex Jr. is an elite road course racer but last year he had problems at both venues and finished poorly as a result.
In 2015 at Sonoma he showed top ten potential but was caught up in an accident and finished 42nd. In 2013 at Sonoma he dominated the race and won his second career race.
In 2015 at Watkins Glen he was top five strong but had problems late which led to a 25th place finish. In the four Watkins Glen races prior to that he had a 7.5 average finish and earned the 5th best driver rating.
In 2013 on this track type nobody scored more points at road courses than Martin Truex Jr.
