Atlanta Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Kevin Harvick has put a thumping on the field in recent races at Atlanta. Sunday might be a little different though with the new rules package. I think it will bring him back to the field a little bit in terms of performance. That said I still expect him to run extremely well and be one of the drivers to beat. This is arguably the best team in NASCAR and they’ll figure it out a lot quicker than others. Adjustments will need to be made in this race and his crew chief Rodney Childers is one of the best in the business. Last year when the 2016 rules package was used Harvick ran well and came home with results of 5th and 8th. In practice Kevin Harvick had a good car that maintained speed better than others over a long run. He was pleased with his car and liked his balance.
Atlanta Track History – In 2001 in just his third start Kevin Harivck won his first career race at Atlanta. He hasn’t won since then but recently he’s ranked as one of the best. Over the last four Atlanta races Harvick has the best driver rating, best average running position (4.5), a misleading 8.8 average finish and has led 412 laps. In the last two Atlanta races in Stewart-Haas Racing equipment, he’s been a standout performer. Last year he had a great car and finished runner-up. Also in that race he had a 4th place average running position and led a race high 116 laps. He could’ve led a lot more laps if he didn’t start in the rear of the field because of an engine change. In 2014 I thought he had the best cars hands down. He earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 195 laps. In that race he had pit stop problems and struggled during restarts. If he could’ve avoided those issues I think he could’ve led the whole race because his car was that good. The end of the race wasn’t incident free for him which led to his misleading 19th place finish. At the time of the Green-White-Checker restart he was behind Paul Menard who took two tires and had problems getting up to speed. That led to Harvick getting bottled up and wrecking. In 6 of the 7 Atlanta races prior to that he finished in the top ten.

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2) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 19th) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Change is in the air this weekend because of the new rules package but over the years I’ve learned, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” Although he’s starting in 19th I think he’ll be just fine. Last year he essentially started in the rear of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In his last four Atlanta incident free races he’s come home with results of 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. His average starting position in those four events was 20th. That’s not dissimilar from where he’ll start on Sunday. Last year Jimmie Johnson was eliminated from the Chase in the first round and you can bet Chad Knaus immediately went to work on the 2016 rules package. In Happy Hour the #48 car was fast. His 15th lap speed compared to others might’ve been the fastest. His 10 lap average that session ranked as the 3rd quickest.
Atlanta Track History – Jimmie Johnson is always a tough competitor at Atlanta. He’s won here four-times and has finished in the top five 54% percent of the time. In his last four “incident free” Atlanta races he’s finished in the top four. This weekend Jimmie Johnson is the defending champion. Last year he started in the rear of the field but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. At the end of the race when his car was tuned to his liking nobody had anything for him. In addition to finishing first he earned the best PROS Ranking, the 3rd best driver rating and led 92 laps. In 2014 he also had a strong showing. For nearly the entire second half of the event he ran within the top five. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 4th and earned the 5th best driver rating. In both 2013 and 2012 Johnson had significant problems that led to misleading results. In the two Atlanta races prior to those events he finished 2nd and 3rd.

Further Recommended Reading – Atlanta Post Practice Predictions, Atlanta Happy Hour Notes, Atlanta Happy Hour Speeds, Atlanta Happy Hour Speed Cheat Sheet, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page

3) Kurt Busch (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 15/1)
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Kurt Busch will start on the pole on Sunday after the #18 failed inspection. Controlling the start of the race and having the best pit stall are big pluses to have. I especially like his pit road advantage. It will be used heavily on Sunday because taking no tires, or taking two tires really isn’t a viable option. Kurt Busch has been very strong at Atlanta. Despite all of his recent success that you’ll read about below I think he’s flying under the radar, or at least not getting the amount of respect a driver of his caliber deserves. Recently at Atlanta he’s been consistent. In the last six Atlanta races he hasn’t finished lower than 13th. In Happy Hour Kurt Busch seemed pretty pleased with his car and his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best.
Atlanta Track History – Atlanta has been a good track for Kurt Busch. He’s won here three-times and has recently been one of the most successful drivers. Since 2010 nobody has a better Atlanta average finish than him (6.8). Also over this stretch he has the 6th best driver rating, a 12.7 average running position and has led 161 laps. In 2015 Kurt Busch missed the race due to suspension. In 2014 he had a good car but finished a misleading 13th. His first adversity was when he had a flat tire while running in the top ten which dropped him to 18th. He rebounded from that and later in the race he was once again in the top ten. Unfortunately the end of the race wasn’t favorable for him. He was a driver who got caught up in the carnage at the end when Harvick wrecked which likely cost him a 7th place result. In 2013 he finished 4th after using some late pit strategy. Performance wise he was really low double digits good. In the four Atlanta races prior to that he finished 13th, 4th, 6th and 1st.