Las Vegas Personal / Comparative Fantasy Values

Drivers have two types of fantasy value every week. They have Personal Fantasy Value, and Comparative Fantasy Value.

Personal Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver is at a certain track compared to the other tracks on the circuit.

Comparative Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver compares to the competition at a certain track.

Let’s talk about Kurt Busch’s fantasy values. His “Personal Fantasy Value” is low. Historically Las Vegas has been a terrible track for him. In the last decade at Las Vegas he’s only finished in the top ten once and that was a 9th place result. His average finish over his other eight races since 2006 is 27.3.

His “Comparative Fantasy Value” is high. I know he’s had problems here and hasn’t been strong performance wise but I think he has a great chance to be competitive on Sunday. I think the new rules package, and softer tires will be beneficial to him. It also doesn’t hurt that he did some pre-season testing here.