Las Vegas Kobalt 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1 ) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 11th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy ace at Las Vegas. Look for him to be tough to beat in the Kobalt 400. Recently at Las Vegas he’s been one of the strongest drivers as you’ll read below. Johnson has one big advantage on much of the field. In January he took part in pre-season testing at Vegas. I think that extra track time is a notable plus because his team has been preparing for this race since then. I think it’s evident it paid off because during testing on Thursday he had the best 10 lap average. Last week at Atlanta using the 2016 rules package Johnson had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after using some late pit strategy. In practice Jimmie Johnson had a great car that was fast over long runs. Practice #2 might prove to be the closest to race conditions and in that session he had the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. Many garage insiders are pointing at Jimmie Johnson as the favorite to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Jimmie Johnson has been a phenomenal performer at Las Vegas. He’s a four-time champion who’s finished in the top ten 57% percent of the time. Since 2010 minus last season’s race he has a 6.2 average finish, 7.4 average running position and the best driver rating over that particular stretch of events. Last year at Las Vegas he had a great car. Strength wise I thought it was the best (PROS Rankings). Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free and multiple tires issues were his undoing which caused him to finish 41st. In that race he started 9th and led 45 of the first 91 laps before his first tire problem. At the time of his first tire problem he was leading. A later tire issue doomed his day and led to him careening into the wall. In 2014 Johnson ran extremely well. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position (best), finished 6th and led 34 laps. Except for the final run of the event when others used pit strategy and got ahead of him he essentially ran in the top three all race long. In 2013 he also finished 6th. In 2012 he finished runner-up.

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2 ) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Las Vegas. He’s the defending champion and has set the standard for speed at 1.5 mile tracks. In recent incident free Las Vegas races he’s run extremely well as you’ll read below. Last week at Atlanta Harvick was very impressive. He led the most laps (131), had the best average running position (3.0) and finished 6th. If Jimmie Johnson didn’t short pit I think Harvick would’ve won. In the three combined races with the 2016 rules package dating back to last year Harvick has the best driver rating and a 6.3 average finish. On Sunday Harvick is using the same chassis he drove to victory lane last year. In its other two starts it finished runner-up. In Happy Hour Kevin Harvick had a solid car and had the 9th best 10 lap average.
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas has been a good track for Harvick. He’s the most recent winner and since 2012 minus 2014 he has the best driver rating, is tied for the best average finish (7.0) and is tied for the best average running position (6.0). Last year Harvick had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he led the most laps (142) and had the best driver rating. In 2014 he had one of the fastest cars and was likely top 3 good but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. With 73 laps to go his race went downhill when he went to the garage for brake rotor issues. In that race he led 23 laps and at the time of his problem he was running in 2nd. Here’s his Yahoo Race Chart which will show you just how strong he was. When the checkered flag waved in that race he finished a misleading 41st. In his last two RCR Las Vegas starts he finished 9th and 11th.

Further Recommended Reading – Las Vegas Post Practice Predictions, Las Vegas Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Las Vegas Qualifying Results, DraftKings Position Differential Tool, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page

3 ) Matt Kenseth (Starting – 3rd) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Matt Kenseth will be strong at Las Vegas. It’s a great track for him and he ranks as one of the strongest performers. This weekend I think he’ll execute a full race and come home with a great result. One aspect I like about Matt Kenseth is that he took part in pre-season testing at Las Vegas. That’s a notable advantage because his team has been preparing for this race since then. Right off the truck they unloaded fast. Last week at Atlanta Matt Kenseth had a great car and was easily top five strong but a pit penalty ruined his afternoon. In both practice sessions on Saturday his ten lap averages ranked as the 4th best.
Las Vegas Track History – Matt Kenseth is a three-time champion at Las Vegas and has finished in the top ten 56% percent of the time. Since 2010 in incident free races he’s finished in the top 11 every race. Over the races since 2010 he has the 2nd best average finish (9.7) and the 4th best driver rating. Currently at Las Vegas he has a three race top ten streak. Last year at Las Vegas he had an OK race. It’s important to note at that time Joe Gibbs Racing as an organization was down a little bit on speed. In that race he finished 9th, had a 12th place average running position and earned the 12th best driver rating. In 2014 he started in 29th but that wasn’t a problem. He had a good car and from lap 50 to the conclusion he typically ran within a few deviations of 10th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 10th, earned the 10th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. In 2013 he had a great car and won with some late pit strategy.