Phoenix Personal / Comparative Fantasy Values

Drivers have two types of fantasy value every week. They have Personal Fantasy Value, and Comparative Fantasy Value.

Personal Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver is at a certain track compared to the other tracks on the circuit.

Comparative Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver compares to the competition at a certain track.

Let’s talk about Denny Hamlin’s Fantasy Values. His Personal Fantasy Value is medium. Phoenix really hasn’t been that great of a track for him. In 3 of the last 5 Phoenix races he’s finished south of 19th. His best finish over this stretch (5th in fall 2014) was misleading and the product of late pit strategy. Last fall he was solid and finished 8th. In spring 2015 he looked lost and was every bit of his 23rd place finish bad.

His Comparative Fantasy Value is high. I expect him to run well and be competitive on Sunday. Last season in the final 3 races at shorter flat tracks he had a 5.3 average finish.