Phoenix Good Sam 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kurt Busch (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Kurt Busch will be strong at Phoenix. He essentially uses Harvick’s setup and we all know how good that is. In recent Phoenix races he’s run extremely well and ranks as one of the best drivers. In four of the last five Phoenix races he’s finished in either 5th or 7th. The only time he didn’t finish within that range he had an engine failure. On Sunday a new tire is being used and it’s important to note Kurt Busch took part in testing this new compound last fall. In practice Kurt Busch really liked his car and had great speed. His ten lap average in practice #2 ranked as the best. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
Phoenix Track History – Kurt Busch is fast at Phoenix. Since fall 2013 minus a spring 2014 engine failure he has a 6.0 average finish, 8.8 average running position and the 4th best driver rating (over that particular stretch). Last fall he had a great car and his 7th place finish doesn’t do him justice. Strength wise I thought he might’ve had the second best car. Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free. He qualified 2nd but during the start NASCAR black flagged him because he beat Jimmie Johnson to the start line. That caused him to serve a pass through penalty under green which dropped him deep in the running order. His car had a good combination of speed and handling so he was able to drive up through the pack. When the race reached it’s conclusion he finished 7th. Last spring he was 2nd place good and was running in that position but pitted late which dropped him to 10th. He was able to drive up to 5th but didn’t get any closer to the front. Also in that race he earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 5th place average running position. In fall 2014 he finished 7th. In spring 2014 he was clearly about 10th place good but finished 39th after an engine failure. In fall 2013 he finished 5th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,600

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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 18th) (Odds To Win – 2.25/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – In fantasy NASCAR nothing is closer to a lock then picking Kevin Harvick at Phoenix. He’s been a dominant force in the desert and hasn’t faced serious competition in years. On Sunday he might have his work cut out because he’ll be starting 18th. It should be noted in fall 2012 he started 19th and raced his way to victory lane, so it can be done. In 7 of the last 8 Phoenix races he’s finished in the top two. The only time he finished outside the top two over this stretch was when he had a broken left front rotor. If last fall’s race would’ve played out like a typical race he would have 5 straight Phoenix wins. In practice Kevin Harvick had a good car but it hasn’t looked dominant like it has in the past. Last fall at Phoenix when Harvick crushed the competition he had the 6th best 10 lap average. Today in final practice he had the 14th best 10 lap average. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 8th best.
Phoenix Track History – Kevin Harvick is a fantasy NASCAR ace at Phoenix. His car looks like it’s on rails in the corners and he gets on the gas sooner than the competition in the turns. Over the last five Phoenix races Harvick has the best driver rating, a 1.2 average finish, 2.4 average running position and has led 925 laps. That lap led total is 769 more than Joey Logano who has led the second most over that stretch. Last fall Harvick had the best car but failed to reach victory lane. Him winning was a near certainty if the race would’ve played out like a typical race. That event had a late caution during the pit cycle and then the rain fell. In that rain shortened event he earned the best PROS Ranking, best driver rating, finished 2nd and led 72.5% percent of the laps until the caution during the pit cycle which essentially ended the race. In spring 2015 Harvick thumped the competition. He started first, finished first, earned a perfect driver rating and led 224 laps. In fall 2014 he needed a clutch moment to make it to the championship round at Homestead and he delivered. In that race he once again earned a perfect driver rating, finished first and led 264 laps. In both spring 2014 and fall 2013 Harvick raced his way to victory lane.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,800

Further Recommended  Reading – Phoenix 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Phoenix Starting Lineup, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page

3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – NASCAR points leader Kyle Busch will have a good afternoon at Phoenix. It’s a great track for him and the #18 team is picking up right where they left off last season, and that’s championship form. In incident free races on the new Phoenix surface Busch has run well and has typically finished between 3rd and 9th. Last year in every race Busch competed at a shorter flat track he showed top five potential. On Sunday he’s starting on the pole and the last five Phoenix pole winners have all finished in the top five. In practice Kyle Busch had good speed. In both Saturday practice sessions his ten lap averages ranked as the 5th best.
Phoenix Track History – Last fall at Phoenix Kyle Busch ran well throughout the race. He finished 4th, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In that race he played it safe because of the championship implications. In spring 2014 he missed the race due to injury. In fall 2014 he had a good car but had an eventful afternoon. In that race on lap 212 while he was running in 6th he spun and collected Bowyer which resulted in heavy damage. Before he spun he ran as high as second and was a top ten mainstay. In the other Phoenix races since 2012 minus spring 2013 (spun) he had results of 3rd, 6th, 7th and 9th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,000