Phoenix Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Good Sam 500
Well, all week long I expected a Phoenix race that was going to be incredibly predictable. If you watched qualifying on Friday, however, you know that it was anything but that. Even the practice sessions on Saturday had some unexpected occurrences. But now we’re ready for the Good Sam 500(k) on Sunday, and I’m still sticking to my guns here and saying that it won’t be that hard to guess which drivers are going to be up front when it’s all said and done. That’s just the nature of this race track. It’s worth noting that this event is pretty short mileage-wise (it’s scheduled for 312) but the great cars will be able to easily make their way through the field. If you’d like to see Saturday’s practice speeds, go here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. And don’t forget to check out our notes for each as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Kyle Busch won the pole for Sunday’s race in the desert and the full starting lineup can be found here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Phoenix
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 18th – DraftKings Price: $10,800 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This really isn’t the week to go for a hail mary and not pick Kevin Harvick. The guy is simply too good at this track. In the off chance he does struggle on Sunday, yes, you will be able to gain a bunch of points on your competition, but it’s 10x more likely that he’s going to dominate this race and you’re going to lose points on them. The time for gambling was last week in Las Vegas. Use this race at Phoenix to “go with the flow” and go with the favorites. History has shown that they are the ones that finish up front here. I’m sure you’ve heard and read enough about Kevin Harvick’s stats here at Phoenix but I’ll go through them one more time (just because they’re so damn impressive): over the last seven races here, he has five wins and a 2nd-place finish, and over the last four he has an average driver rating of 148.7, which is just ridiculous. Also over those four events, Harvick has led more laps (855) than most drivers have led in their entire careers here. The only exception is Jimmie Johnson, who has led 977 laps in 25 career starts at Phoenix. Harvick couldn’t get comfortable in qualifying on Friday and will have to start 18th. This makes him a must-start in any game that awards points for place differential (DraftKings, NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, FOX, etc.). In the two practice sessions on Saturday, the #4 Chevrolet was either the fastest or the 2nd-fastest, and although it looked like Harvick was low on the ten-lap average chart (14th in Happy Hour), don’t forget that he made his run on laps 23 through 32 while pretty much everyone else made theirs’ from laps 1 through 10. Harvick has a damn good race car here at Phoenix, just like we expected all week.
2. Kyle Busch – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $10,000 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Let’s take a step back and acknowledge the fact that Kyle Busch hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 in a Sprint Cup event since Talladega last October. He’s had a relatively quiet 2016 season thus far despite the fact that he hasn’t finished worse than 4th yet. Part of that has to do with his starting spots the last few weeks and the fact that the #18 Toyota hasn’t really dominated a race yet. That’ll happen soon, though, don’t worry. This week at Phoenix, Busch doesn’t have to worry about his starting spot at all because he won the pole on Friday. Then on Saturday he ranked 5th in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average. Rowdy will not have a hard time posting another great finish here on Sunday, just as he has done many times throughout his career at Phoenix. He only has one victory here (back in 2005) but owns a career average finish of 13.8 and has posted five top 10s in his last seven starts at PIR, including his 4th-place effort here last fall. Kyle Busch is consistently one of the top fantasy picks on a week to week basis and that is the case once again this weekend. He should be one of the favorites to win on race day and is probably going to be the driver to lead the most laps.
3. Kurt Busch – Starts 4th – DraftKings Price: $9,600 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kurt overcame his hometown struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend, and now I think it’s official that you can’t overlook this #41 team. They have found a whole bunch of speed here early on in the season, and they’re getting the finishes to back it up, too. And for the third week in a row, the #41 Chevrolet looks like it has the speed to win on Sunday. Kurt qualified 4th for the Good Sam 500, and was 1st or 2nd in ten-lap average in each practice session on Saturday. Overall, Kurt has been one of the strongest performers here at Phoenix over the last few years, and he has three straight top 10s to show for it. Also, if you look at all of the tracks that the Sprint Cup Series visits every year, Phoenix ranks 3rd-best on Kurt’s list in terms of average finish. He does have one victory here (back in 2005) along with 15 top 5s in 26 total starts. As I said last weekend, Kurt Busch is one of those drivers that is going to bite you eventually, but you can’t really go against speed. Plus, he’s less of a risky pick here at Phoenix simply because of his history. He should be a solid top 10 pick in the Good Sam 500 on Sunday with a decent shot at creeping up into the top 5. Kurt is 3rd among active drivers in laps led here in the desert with 750.
