Auto Club 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 6th
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is poised to be one of the drivers to beat at Auto Club Speedway. It’s been a great track for him and he’s always strong here. When he’s avoided trouble at Auto Club Speedway he’s proven himself a near lock for a good result. Tire wear will be a big factor this weekend and in that sense it’s comparable to Atlanta. At Atlanta he dominated and unquestionably was the driver to beat. He would’ve won if it wasn’t for tire strategy from Johnson and a late caution. One attribute I like about Kevin Harvick is that he knows how to search around the track to find the fastest groove. That ability of his will be big on Sunday. In practice Kevin Harvick had a very good car and he’s the garage favorite to win. Over long runs his speed doesn’t drop off as much as others. In both practice sessions on Saturday his ten lap averages ranked as the 4th best.
Auto Club Track History – Kevin Harvick is a former Auto Club Speedway champion who’s finished in the top 13 in 7 of the last 8 races. Last year he had a great car. He started 2nd, finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating and the 2nd best PROS Rankings. Over long runs his car ranked as one of the best. In 2014 he easily looked top five good but finished 36th after having multiple flat tires. In 2013 he also looked top five good but finished 13th after being at a tire disadvantage late because of how the end of the race played out. In the five Auto Club races prior to that he finished in the top ten every race, had a 5.4 average finish and had a 9.0 average finish. In 2011 he won at Auto Club Speedway outracing Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch at the end.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,500

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 6th
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be looking to pick up where he left off at Auto Club Speedway on Sunday. Last year he missed the race but in the four Auto Club races leading up to that event he cemented himself as a favorite. Auto Club Speedway has been an awesome venue for Busch. He won his first race here, and has won his last two races here. This year at similar tracks that correlate to success at Auto Club Speedway he’s been an elite performer with results of 3rd and 4th despite starting deep in the field. One attribute I like about Kyle Busch is his momentum. In every race this season he’s finished in either 3rd or 4th. In practice Kyle Busch has shown good speed. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the quickest. In Happy Hour he ranked as the 6th best in that statistic.
Auto Club Track History – Kyle Busch is a fantasy ace at Auto Club Speedway. He missed last year’s race but leading up to that event he was as good as anybody in the series. Over his last four Auto Club races he has a 1.8 average finish, 3.0 average running position, the best driver rating and has led 361 laps. Currently at Auto Club Speedway he has back to back wins. In 2014 he was a top five driver but raced his way to victory lane at the end after being at a tire advantage. In 2013 he dominated the race and led 125 laps, had a near perfect driver rating and a 2nd place average running position. In that race it’s important to note he wouldn’t have won if Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin didn’t get into each other at the end. In the two Auto Club races prior to that he likely had the best car but didn’t close the deal and finished 2nd and 3rd.
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Further Recommended Reading – Auto Club Post Practice Predictions, Auto Club 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Fantasy NASCAR Start Page

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 19th) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 8th
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – Jimmie “Super Man” Johnson is an elite performer at Auto Club Speedway and you can definitely count on him contending for the win. It’s a great track for him and if NASCAR raced here more often it would likely be in the conversation with Dover and Martinsville for what track is his best. At Auto Club Speedway Johnson has been to victory lane 5 times, has a 6.8 average result, has finished in the top five 57% percent of the time and in the top ten 71% percent of the time. This year at intermediate tracks that correlate to success at Auto Club Speedway he’s been very strong. Between Las Vegas and Atlanta he’s scored the most points, has 1 win, a 2.0 average finish, 3.5 average running position and has led 128 laps. In Happy Hour Jimmie Johnson had the 24th best ten lap average. I’m not concerned about that one bit because it was likely done on old tires and he was happy with is car. When he’s happy your know he’s good.
Auto Club Track History – Jimmie Johnson is an extremely strong performer at Auto Club Speedway. It’s home to his best average finish among the 23 venues on the schedule (6.8). Last year he had a solid afternoon and finished 9th. Performance wise he was better than his result and the Green-White-Checker at the end cost him a few positions. Also in the race it should be noted he earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In 2014 his car was the class of the field and he should’ve won. His downfall was a late flat tire while leading. If tires didn’t become an issue that afternoon nobody really had anything for him. In that event he led more than half the race (104 laps) and earned the best driver rating. In 2013 he wasn’t competitive and finished 12th. I won’t hold that against him because it was during the early days of the Generation6 car. In the ten Auto Club races prior to that he had 10 straight top tens. In six of those races he finished in either 1st or 2nd.
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