Martinsville STP 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Joey Logano (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 6th
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano has become a fantasy ace at Martinsville. He’s never won here but over the last two years he’s arguably been the strongest performer. If Logano wasn’t wrecked while leading last fall he had a great chance to reach victory lane. In spring 2015 he was also a contender. On Sunday I expect Logano to be tough to beat from the pole. He has a good car and he’s driven to avenge his incident last fall with a trip to victory lane.
Martinsville Track History – Joey Logano will be a factor at Martinsville. Over the last four races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps (414), has the best average running position (5.5) and a misleading 12.3 average finish. Last fall Logano had the best car but was wrecked while leading. Even with that incident which led to his 37th place finish he managed to lead 207 laps, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In spring 2015 he had a very strong showing. He finished 3rd and led 108 laps despite getting spun. In 2014 he swept the top five with results of 4th and 5th. Also in the combined races that season he led 99 laps and had a 5.0 average running position.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,200

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2) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 8th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 6th
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is always a good fantasy NASCAR pick at Martinsville. He’s an elite short track driver who knows how to manage his equipment. What makes him so good here is his ability to roll through the center of the corners with ease. At Martinsville he’s as close to a lock as they come. Last year at Martinsville a strong case could be made that he was the best driver. This weekend he has a great car underneath him and he seems happy with how its performed. In Happy Hour he had the 7th quickest lap, and the 7th best ten lap average. One aspect I like about Hamlin is his momentum. He has back to back third place finishes entering the weekend.
Martinsville Track History – Denny Hamlin is an elite Martinsville talent. He’s won here five times and has an 8.1 average finish. His top five finish percentage is 55% percent and his top ten finish percentage is 80%. Last year at Martinsville he was a great performer. He scored the most points and was the only driver who finished in the top five both races. Also between the combined events he had the 3rd best driver rating and a 10.5 average running position. Last fall Hamlin finished 3rd. It was a remarkable result when you consider he had to overcome a speeding penalty in the first 100 laps and another speeding penalty in the last 100 laps. In spring 2015 he raced his way to victory lane with Brad Keselowski on his heels. In that event he earned the best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 91 laps. In fall 2014 he had a great car. He started 5th, had a 5th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating, finished 8th and led 68 laps.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,100

Further Recommended Reading – Martinsville Post Practice Predictions, Martinsville Speed Cheat Sheet, Martinsville Happy Hour Notes, Martinsville Happy Hour Speeds, Martinsville Starting Lineup, Practice Notes / Practice Speeds Page, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 24th) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Likely Finish Range – 1st to 7th
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – In order to be the man at Martinsville, first you must beat “Super Man.” There’s a lot of things to like about Johnson at Martinsville. He’s entering the race with tons of momentum and his Martinsville track record is impeccable. Last year was sort of an off-year for him at the “Paper Clip”, but I’m confident they’ll rebound in a very meaningful way. On Sunday Johnson is listed as the NASCAR odds on favorite to win at 9/2. In Happy Hour Johnson was fast over long runs and his ten lap average ranked as the best.
Martinsville Track History – Jimmie Johnson is an elite performer at Martinsville. In 28 races he has 8 wins, 18 top fives, 22 top tens and 25 top fifteens. He’s had a few “off-races” at Martinsville recently but don’t let that scare you away. Last fall Johnson had an OK car but was never threat. He finished 12th and had a 10th place average running position. In the first half of that race he showed top five potential but in the second half he looked about 13th place good. Last spring he looked lost in the race and struggled. Also in that event he was involved in an accident. When that race reached its conclusion he finished 35th. In fall 2014 he had top five potential but his race wasn’t incident free. While he was running in 3rd around lap 100 he pitted because of vibration. Later he was involved in an accident which cemented him to a poor 32nd place finish. In spring 2014 he had a great car but came up short at the end. He finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 296 laps. In the three Martinsville races prior to that he finished 5th, 1st and 1st.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400