Texas Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Duck Commander 500
Thankfully we didn’t run into any weather issues in Texas this weekend because we had quite the condensed schedule. After a practice session on Thursday, the Sprint Cup teams turned around and qualified on Friday afternoon and had a final practice session on Friday evening. Add in the fact that we have our first Saturday night race of the season this weekend and I think we’re going to be seeing a lot of comers and goers during the 2016 Duck Commander 500. Tire management is going to be key this weekend as well because we see a big falloff here. Because of the limited track time these teams got this weekend, I’ll probably be leaning on history more than usual–especially for a cookie cutter track. Also, don’t forget that Atlanta is a similar track to Texas in shape and banking, so it’ll be worth your time to re-analyze that race a bit.
Carl Edwards won the pole for this weekend’s race, and the full starting lineup can be found here. There were two practice sessions–one on Thursday and one after qualifying on Friday–and those results can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forge to check out our notes for each practice as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Texas
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 22nd – DraftKings Price: $10,500 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Well, I recommended giving Kevin Harvick a break last weekend at Martinsville, and while it did end up being the right call, it probably shouldn’t have. Once again the #4 Chevrolet was a top 5 car, and that is (surprise, surprise) definitely the case once again this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. “Happy” Harvick has never went to victory lane in a Cup car here at Texas but he’s been knocking on the door here for the past few races; over the last three Texas events, Harvick has finished 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd. He probably would have had a fourth great finish like that in a row except his engine blew in this race two years ago. That was before this #4 team really started heating up, though. Anyway, there’s not a whole lot to say about Harvick this week. He qualified 22nd but that just makes him that much better of an option in leagues like DraftKings, FOX Fantasy Auto, and NASCAR.com Fantasy Live. In Happy Hour, Harvick ended up with the 4th-best ten-lap average and he made that run later in the session–which means he probably has a great car. This team ran 6th at Atlanta back in February, came home 7th at Las Vegas, and was 2nd at Fontana a few weeks ago. As usual, the #4 Chevrolet should contend for the win here on Saturday night.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 11th – DraftKings Price: $10,400 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If you have an argument for not picking Jimmie Johnson this weekend, I’d like to hear it. The guy has been borderline unbelievable here at Texas Motor Speedway over the last few years, going to victory lane in five of the last seven events at this race track. Johnson also won the Atlanta race earlier this year–which is a track that is similar to Texas–and he also won at Fontana a few weeks ago. At the other cookie cutter track we’ve raced at this season (Las Vegas), he finished 3rd. So to say that he should be on the majority of fantasy rosters this weekend is an understatement. Not to mention this #48 Chevrolet unloaded super fast off the truck, quickly posting the fastest lap early on in practice on Thursday before ending up 6th on the speed chart when it was all said and done. In Happy Hour, Johnson posted the 7th-best lap and was 8th on the ten-lap average chart–although it should be noted his run was made later on in the session. Typically this means that the car will be even faster than that, which isn’t a good sign for the competition. The six-time Sprint Cup champion is also a six-time winner in the Lone Star State and boasts the best career average finish (8.4) among all drivers here. He should be in the mix for the win on Saturday night as well as one that could lead the most laps.
3. Carl Edwards – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $9,500 – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Some how, some way Carl Edwards was able to rally to a 6th-place finish at Martinsville last weekend despite looking like junk for 95% of the race. I guess that kind of stuff is the reason that Cousin Carl has the best average finish of all Sprint Cup drivers over the last 25 races. He’s also the only driver to complete 100% of the laps over that span. And yes, I am going to continue to bring that statistic up until I have a reason not to. Edwards has (and has had for a while) this tendency to not look like a great fantasy option in practice. Therefore, as we’ve seen over the years, when he looks like a legitimate contender heading into the race, he typically has a great race car. This weekend, he starts on the pole and had the 2nd-fastest car in Happy Hour. He also had the 17th-best ten-lap average, but it was a very good sign that he actually made that chart. Carl is a three-time winner here at Texas Motor Speedway and is currently on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. He’s one of those drivers that really likes to get out there and slide around, and those are exactly the type of conditions that TMS offers. This year, Carl has had just one finish worse than 7th in the first six races, and that was his 18th-place run at Las Vegas. Finally, Edwards is looking like the weekly threat that so many expected him to be last season. You might as well hitch a ride on the bandwagon now because I think this #19 team will find their way to victory lane sooner rather than later. He should lead laps early and be running around the top 5 when it’s all said and done on Saturday night.
