Bristol Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Food City 500

The racing at Bristol Motor Speedway can be incredibly frustrating from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. In my opinion, the races at this track are the restrictor plate events of short tracks. There’s a reason that the driver with the best average finish over the last six races at Bristol is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. with 11.2. So keep that in mind when making your picks this weekend. Although it is typically best practice to pick the fastest cars, the Bristol races offer a great opportunity to take a shot with some sleeper drivers, simply because we always see at least one or two near the front.

We got back to the “normal” schedule this weekend with a practice on Friday followed by qualifying. Carl Edwards won the pole for the second race in a row, and the full Food City 500 starting lineup can be found here. We then had two practices on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. And don’t forget to check out our in-depth notes for those sessions, too: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For Bristol

1. Kyle Busch – Starts 5th – DraftKings Price: $10,700 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

There’s really not a whole lot to say about Kyle Busch this weekend. Even on races when he didn’t look like a top 5 threat this season, he’s been a top 5 car by the end of the race–and he’s finished there in all but one (thanks to that blown tire at Fontana). Rowdy has also won the last two Sprint Cup races and is a five-time winner here at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Sprint Cup Series. He had one of the best cars in the fall race here last season and that is going to be the case in the Food City 500 as well. The #18 Toyota was probably the most consistent in terms of speed over the whole weekend and Busch was 2nd to Kyle Larson in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. This isn’t the week to go against Kyle Busch: he has a car that can win on Sunday…again.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 6th – DraftKings Price: $10,200 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Jimmie Johnson gets the nod in 2nd place this week over a few of these other drivers for a couple of reasons. First is the fact that he has four top 5 finishes in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t had a result worst than 11th since the season-opening Daytona 500. And then there’s the fact that the #48 Chevrolet has been one of the most consistent here at Bristol over the last couple of years; Johnson has finished 4th or better in each of the last three races in “Thunder Valley,” and looks to be well on his way to a fourth straight top 5 here in the Food City 500 on Sunday. JJ will roll off the grid in 6th once we get started and was 5th in terms of ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday. Surprisingly, Johnson has only one career win here at Bristol, but that’s going to change soon. Will it be this weekend?

3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $10,000 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

If you read my post on Matt Kenseth earlier this week (click here if you didn’t), you’ll know that I thought that this Bristol race would be a perfect opportunity for him to get his season back on track. Now, the bad news is that typically Bristol isn’t a track where you turn things around. However, there’s a lot to like about Matt Kenseth this weekend. A four-time winner here, Kenseth is the defending winner of this race and has finished 3rd or better in three of his last five starts here–including another win in the fall 2013 event. The #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 2nd on Sunday, too, and looked like it had pretty good speed during the practice sessions on Saturday; Kenseth was 10th-fastest in both overall speed and ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Typically all of this would point to a not-so-risky fantasy option, but I can’t get past the fact that Matt Kenseth only has one top 10 finish in the 2016 season thus far. Until he gets off of this bad luck streak, he will continue to be risky in my eyes.