Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Richmond. It’s a great track for him and he’s an elite driver on this track type. In the last three races at shorter flat tracks nobody has been better (New Hampshire #2 – 2015, Phoenix – #2 2015, and Phoenix #1 2016). Over those events he led 498 laps, ran 214 fastest laps, had a 2.7 average running position, the best driver rating by a wide margin and a misleading 8.0 average finish (ran out of fuel while leading at New Hampshire late). Phoenix is the most similar track on the schedule and earlier this year at that venue he won in dominant fashion. On Sunday Kevin Harvick is starting on the pole, 19.3% percent of Richmond races have been won from that starting position. In practice Kevin Harvick had a strong car. In Happy Hour he had the second best 10 lap average and the 4th quickest overall lap.
Richmond Track History – Kevin Harvick runs well at Richmond and is an elite performer. At this venue he’s a three-time champion who has a 10.8 average finish. Over the last six Richmond races he has a 7.3 average finish, 7.3 average running position and the 4th best driver rating. Last fall his team was doing a fair bit of experimenting and it didn’t work that well and led to him finishing 14th. In spring 2015 he had a great car and finished runner-up. Additionally in that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. In fall 2014 he had one of the best cars, but it wasn’t at its best at the end. When that race reached its conclusion he finished 5th. In the two RIR races prior to that he finished 11th. In spring 2013 Kevin Harvick got his most recent Richmond win.
Momentum – In 7 of the 8 races this season Kevin Harvick has finished in the top ten. In the last two races he finished 7th and 10th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,600

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 9th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is an elite performer at Richmond and picking him in the spring time, is the right time. In 7 of the last 8 spring Richmond races he’s finished in the top 3. In every spring Richmond race minus spring 2013 he’s finished in the top five! That’s pretty good in my book. In the one race he finished outside the top five he arguably had the best car. Phoenix is the most similar track on the schedule and earlier this year at that venue he finished 4th and led 75 laps. One aspect I like about Kyle Busch is how strong he’s been week in and week out this season. In Happy Hour Kyle Busch showed speed. He had the 3rd best single lap and the 3rd best ten lap average.
Richmond Track History – Richmond is a great track for Kyle Busch. In 21 races he has 4 wins, 14 top fives (67%), 15 top tens (71%) and a 7.1 average finish. The spring Richmond race has historically been his better event. At one point in his career in this particular event he had 6 straight top 2 finishes. Last fall he had a great car and finished runner-up. Additionally in that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 9 laps. In spring 2015 he missed the race due to injury. In fall 2014 he didn’t have a great car. He finished 14th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 12th best driver rating. In that race his team was doing experimenting. In spring 2014 he finished 3rd but his car really wasn’t that good. In the three Richmond races prior to that he finished 16th, 19th and 24th. In the 7 races prior to that he had four wins and finished in the top six every race.
Momentum – In every incident free race this season Kyle Busch has finished in the top five. Last week he had multiple problems and finished poorly. In the two races prior to that he went to victory lane.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $11,000

Further Recommended Reading – Richmond Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Big Board Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, Draftkings Start Page, Yahoo Fantasy NASCAR Start Page

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 3rd) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – On Sunday Jimmie Johnson is starting 3rd. Historically the 3rd place starting position has been the second most proficient in producing winners. The last three Richmond races have been won from a top three starting position. Historically when he starts up front at Richmond he’s done a good job finishing near the front. In fall 2014 he started 3rd and finished 8th. In 9 of the last 10 Richmond races when he’s started in the top five he’s finished 13th or better. At Richmond Johnson has run well recently and currently has three straight top tens. I view Phoenix as essentially a reverse Richmond and earlier this year at that venue he earned the 7th best driver rating, had a 9th place average running position and finished 11th. In practice Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus both liked how the #48 performed. In Happy Hour he had quickest overall lap and the best 10 lap average.
Richmond Track History – Jimmie Johnson is a very capable performer at Richmond but its been one of the more volatile venues for him. It’s home to his worst top ten finish percentage among the 23 tracks on the schedule (39%). Currently at Richmond Johnson has three consecutive top tens. Over this three race stretch he has a 6.7 average finish, 9.3 average running position and has the 8th best driver rating. Last fall Johnson ran well. He finished 9th, had a 7th place average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. In spring 2015 he also had a good car. He started deep in the field and drove home to a 3rd place finish. In fall 2014 he finished 8th and earned the 9th best driver rating. In spring 2014 he was top ten good, but a flat tire that led to an unexpected pit stop ruined his evening.
Momentum – At Bristol Jimmie Johnson didn’t have an incident free race and finished 23rd. In the six races prior to that he had an 8.5 average finish.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,000