Talladega Geico 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Starting – 3rd) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Talladega Fantasy Spin – She’s back! “Amelia”, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s favorite restrictor plate track chassis will once again be used on Sunday. Last year on this track type this chassis was dominate scoring the most points, having a 1.8 average finish and leading a series high 256 laps. At Talladega last year it dominated the spring race and was the best car in the fall. Amelia wasn’t so hot in this years Daytona 500 but I wouldn’t be concerned. Handling became a surprise premium in that race, at Talladega that attribute won’t be factor. Amelia has proven standout speed and when you combine that with Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s elite drafting talent you know he’ll be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has talked about controling the race this weekend. That’s great news because that means he’ll try to run up front the entire race and not play any games.
Talladega Track History – Talladega is a great track for Dale Earnhardt Jr. He’s won here six times and has finished in the top ten 50% percent of the time. If anybody is a lock to run well it’s him. In the last five Talladega races he’s led +26 laps per race. Last year nobody was better than him. In October 2015 the #88 was fast and earned the #1 position in our PROS Rankings. In the event he finished 2nd and led 61 laps. I will note his result deserves a slight Asterisk Mark. If he didn’t get a pit stop penalty while leading about 3/5ths through the race under green I thought he would’ve won. In spring 2015 he dominated the competition and raced his way to the win. En route to victory lane he led the most laps, earned the best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. His car had standout speed and whatever line he ran became the fastest line. In fall 2014 he had a great car but was caught up in a “Big One.” In that race he earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 9th place average running position and led 31 laps. In spring 2014 I thought he had the best car but he had no desire to race at the end because he didn’t want to wreck. In that race he led 26 laps. In fall 2013 he finished 2nd and led 38 laps.
Momentum – This season minus the Daytona 500 Dale Earnhardt Jr. has scored the 4th most points and has a 7.1 average finish.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,300

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2) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 5th) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Jimmie Johnson has recently been one of the strongest drivers at Talladega but he doesn’t have the results to show for it. In the Generation 6 car at this venue he has the best driver rating, led the most laps (233), has the best average running position (6.3) and a 14.2 average finish. Many of his results in the current car here deserve an asterisk mark. In the Daytona 500 Jimmie Johnson had a fast car but his handling wasn’t the best. When the checkered flag waved he finished 16th and led 18 laps. Handling won’t be a factor so don’t let that scare you away. Last year on this track type Johnson scored the second most points in the series.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been a good track for Jimmie Johnson. He’s won here twice and has led laps in 25 of the last 26 races. As you read above he’s been stellar here in the Generation 6 car. Last fall he had a great car and was easily top ten good but was a victim of a late “Big One.” Prior to wrecking he was running in 7th.  Also in the race it should be noted he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and led 34 laps. In spring 2015 he had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 50 laps. In fall 2014 he might’ve had the best car but finished 24th after he made some very poor lane selection decisions near the end. Additionally in that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led a race high 84 laps. In spring 2014 he had one of the best cars but spun late.
Momentum – Over the last five races Jimmie Johnson has scored the 3rd most points and has an 8.0 average finish.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,800

Further Recommended Reading – Talladega Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Starting Lineup, Practice Notes / Practice Speeds, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, Scouting Report

3) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 7th) (Odds To Win – 15/1)
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is a driver who should be on your short list of fantasy options. He’s an elite drafting talent and has been especially strong at Talladega where he’s a three-time champion. At Talladega it should be noted he’s been somewhat of a hero or a zero or zero performer. When he hasn’t finished in the top ten his average finish is 28.5.
Talladega Track History – Brad Keselowski runs well at Talladega. He’s finished in the top five 36% percent of the time and in the top ten 57% percent of the time. Over the last three races he has the 3rd best driver rating and a 9.0 average finish. Last fall he had a great car earning the 3rd best driver rating and finishing 4th. At the end of the race he was race winner Joey Logano’s wing man. Last spring he had a pretty good car that had top ten speed but finished 22nd. Near the end of that race he decided to get out of line and that sent him back in the pack. In fall 2014 he had the clutch moment of the season and raced his way to victory lane ensuring he would advance to the next round of the Chase.
Momentum – Over the last five races Brad Keselowski has scored the 8th most points and has a 12.2 average finish.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,000