Talladega Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – GEICO 500

The GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway is this Sunday, a race that we could see end with pretty much any driver in the field in victory lane. These restrictor plate races all come down to to timing in the end, and it doesn’t hurt if you have a strong engine underneath the hood, either. We had an impound schedule this weekend, which means we saw two practice sessions on Friday and then only qualifying on Saturday. The results for the practices can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Our notes for those two can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Chase Elliott won the pole for Sunday’s race, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For Talladega

1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 3rd – DraftKings Price: $10,300 – Yahoo! A Group

For those that are new to the sport, Dale Junior is the king of restrictor plate races. He’s the favorite to win every time we come to these big race tracks, just like he is this week. Over his thirty-two career starts here, Earnhardt had led 960 total laps, which may not seem like a lot at just 30 per race. However, the races at Talladega are only scheduled for 188 laps, which mean–on average–Junior leads 16% of every single race here. Not only that, but the driver who is second on the laps led leaderboard is Matt Kenseth with just 473. He has made the same number of starts at Talladega that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has, just to put that into perspective. This #88 Chevrolet is the defending winner of this Talladega race and ended up 2nd in last year’s fall race, which was just top 5 finish #12 for Junior at this track–or in 37.5% of his starts. Earnhardt will, without a doubt, be the most popular fantasy pick for this weekend’s GEICO 500, so you can either go with the crowd and pick the best driver in the field, or you can avoid Junior and hope he has problems like he did at Daytona. I wouldn’t bet on the latter happening. The #88 Chevrolet starts 3rd and should be up front all day on Sunday.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 5th – DraftKings Price: $9,800 – Yahoo! A Group

You can’t really count out the Hendrick Motorsports cars when we come to the big restrictor plate tracks, and although Jimmie Johnson doesn’t always deliver here at Talladega, he’s still a very solid fantasy option. Over the last four races here, no other driver has a better average driver rating than Jimmie (109.0) and only one driver has led more laps than him over that span: his teammate, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Based on those two stats alone, the #48 and #88 Chevrolets have been the best cars here at Talladega over the last two years. However, Johnson really only has one good finish to show for it: a 2nd-place result in this race one year ago. He does have two career victories here, though, and has posted seven top 5 finishes in twenty-eight career starts here (25%). It should be noted that Jimmie Johnson has led at least one lap in each of the last twelve races here at Talladega, and in all but two of those twenty-eight starts at this track.

3. Carl Edwards – Starts 9th – DraftKings Price: $10,100 – Yahoo! B Group

If you’re one of those people that likes to make your restrictor plate fantasy picks based on momentum, here’s you’re guy. With his second win of the season at Richmond last weekend, Carl Edwards is now on a 28-race streak of completing every single lap ran, and he also has the best average finish (7.2) over that time frame. Here at Talladega, Cousin Carl hasn’t been great to be honest with you. In twenty-three career starts at this race track, Edwards has posted just three top 5 finishes (13%) with six total top 10s (26%). With that being said, the #19 Toyota finished 5th in the fall race here at ‘Dega last season and Carl came home 5th in this year’s Great American Race at Daytona as well. I would definitely not use him in allocation leagues but Edwards should be a good fantasy pick in other “normal” leagues.