Dover Fantasy NASCAR Personal / Comparative Fantasy Values

Drivers have two types of fantasy value every week. They have Personal Fantasy Value, and Comparative Fantasy Value.

Personal Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver is at a certain track compared to the other venues on the circuit.

Comparative Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver compares to the competition at a certain track.

Let’s talk about Kurt Busch’s fantasy values at Dover.

His Personal Fantasy Value is low. On paper Dover hasn’t been a friendly track to him. Since his 2011 Dover win he doesn’t have a single top ten and his average finish is 20.5. I don’t know how I couldn’t say he’s low.

His Comparative Fantasy Value is high. I expect him to run very well on Sunday. Last year he was very competitive in both races but didn’t have a single incident free race. In both 2015 races he had top five potential. When you add in how well he’s run week in and week out this season then I think its clear he’s primed for success.