Dover Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Dover Fantasy Spin – The competition is in trouble on Sunday with Kevin Harvick starting on the pole. Nobody has been better than him in recent races at Dover. In each of the last four Dover races he’s arguably had the best car. On Sunday I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be considered the favorite to win. In practice he had a great car that could huge the bottom of the track, that’s the line he used last fall when he dominated the competition and raced his way to victory lane. In Happy Hour Harvick had the second fastest overall lap and the best 10 lap average. One attribute I like about Harvick is how well he’s run on a week to week basis this season. His average finish is 6.9.
Dover Track History – Kevin Harvick has become a fantasy NASCAR ace at Dover and over the last four races he’s been “Jimmie Johnson Dover dominant.” Over this four race stretch he has the best driver rating, best average running position, led the most laps and has a misleading 8.3 average finish. Last fall he had a clutch performance and raced his way to victory lane. In that race he earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 355 laps. His laps led total is even more impressive when you consider he started 15th. In spring 2015 I thought he had the best car but during a late restart while he was leading on old tires Jimmie Johnson got around him and he couldn’t reel him back in. In that race he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 91 laps. In 2014 Harvick had stellar cars but in both races he had valve stem issues that caused a flat tire while leading. Strength wise he probably could’ve won both of those races.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 3rd) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch has been the best driver, week in and week out this season. He’s had top five potential every race and in 5 of the last 6 he’s finished in the top two. I expect him to have another strong showing at Dover. He’s an elite performer here and always finishes well when he has an incident free race. Last year at Dover he was arguably the second best driver between the combined events. On Sunday Busch will be without his crew chief. I think that will have a minor impact on him. On Sunday Kyle Busch is starting in 3rd. In his three Dover races when he’s started in that position he’s finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.
Dover Track History – Dover is a great track for Kyle Busch. Last fall he finished runner-up and led 19 laps. He had a fast car and never pushed it too hard because of Chase implications. In addition to finishing 2nd he earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 3rd place average running position. In spring 2015 he had top five potential but while he was running in 3rd with 24 laps to go he was involved in a wreck. In fall 2014 he had a great car. He earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and finished 10th. In June 2014 he was primed for a strong showing but his race wasn’t incident free. While he was running in 3rd on lap 125 Clint Bowyer had contact with him which sent the #18 into the wall. Before he wrecked he managed to lead the first 81 laps. In 7 of the 8 Dover races prior to that he finished in the top ten. In his career at Dover Busch has two wins and has finished in the top five 45% percent of the time, and in the top ten 64% percent of the time. In practice Kyle Busch had a great car. Some say practice #2 will be the most relevant this weekend and in that session he had the fastest overall speed and the 7th best ten lap average.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,500

Further Recommended Reading – Dover Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Dover Speed Cheat Sheet, Dover Practice Notes / Practice Speeds Center, Dover Starting Lineup, DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Start Page, Yahoo Fantasy NASCAR Start Page

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 21st) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Dover is an awesome track for Jimmie Johnson and in NASCAR history nobody has been better than him here. At Dover Johnson has 10 wins, has finished in the top five 54% percent of the time and in the top ten 71% percent of the time. He’s only finished outside the top ten three times since 2008 and in each of those races you can put an asterisk mark next to his result. In 7 of the last 9 Dover races he’s finished in the top four. It should be noted however that he hasn’t been as strong over the last couple of races here. On Sunday Johnson is starting 21st. That isn’t ideal but he’ll be able to advance his way in the running order and come home with a great result. If your fantasy league rewards points for pass differential, its not such a bad thing. Using our Position Differential Tool you’ll find that his base fantasy score is 55 if he simply finishes 5th. In Happy Hour Johnson focused on running the bottom of the track and on Sunday that will be huge. His ten lap average that session ranked as the 8th best.
Dover Track History – Dover is a special track for Jimmie Johnson and ranks among his best. He’s NASCAR’s all-time wins leader and if he has an incident free race he’s proven himself to essentially be a lock for a top five. Over the last five Dover races he has 3 wins and 4 top three finishes. His one result not within that range occurred last fall when he had a parts failure. Prior to that issue and a speeding penalty he ran in the top five. In spring 2015 he didn’t have the best car but late in the race he got around Kevin Harvick for the lead and then hung on racing his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 23 laps. In fall 2014 he had a quiet race by his standards leading 0 laps and finishing 3rd. In 10 of the 11 Dover races prior to that he led +143 laps per race. In the two Dover races prior to that he won in dominate fashion and led a combined 515 laps.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,700