Pocono Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Axalta 400
Once again we’re looking at rain in the race forecast this weekend, but I don’t think we’re going to be so lucky this time around. As of this writing, Brian Neudorff (who always monitors the weather around the race tracks) put as at a 10% chance of racing on Sunday. The forecast has had 100% chance of showers on Sunday for pretty much the entire week, so I think we’re going to see a Monday Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 race. So we’re probably going to have a green race track and a field of drivers that have had about one hour of practice. Things could get crazy. Pocono is a race that often involves a lot of strategy, too, so don’t be afraid to make some “out of the box” picks this weekend. The teams that can adjust on the fly will be the ones that succeed this race.
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are on the front row for Sunday/Monday’s race and the full starting lineup can be found here. As mentioned before, there was really only one worthwhile practice this weekend, and those speeds can be found here. Also, here’s our notes for that session.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Pocono
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 4th – DraftKings Price: $10,400 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
There is no clear-cut favorite this week. Last weekend, I sat down after practice and qualifying and said, “Yep, Truex has the car to beat for the Coca-Cola 600.” But there’s not really one car that sticks out like that at Pocono this weekend. I think this race is going to come down to who is in the right place at the right time. One of the drivers that has a great chance of being there is Kevin Harvick, and the reason for that is because I think he’s going to be running up front all day long on Sunday (or Monday). The Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolets have been great here at Pocono over the last couple of years, and Kevin Harvick has finished 2nd in two of the last three races here. He started 2nd here last fall but had engine issues and ended up finishing 42nd, but those are the types of things that you can’t predict. This weekend, the #4 Chevrolet has had good speed since they unloaded and will roll off the grid from 4th place. Harvick was 5th on the Happy Hour speed chart and had the 2nd-best ten-lap average during that final session. He’s never been to victory lane here at “The Tricky Triangle,” but Harvick could pull one off this weekend. Like I said, he’s not the flat-out favorite for the Axalta 400, but he’s in the conversation.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 7th – DraftKings Price: $10,100 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This #48 team finally broke their streak of bad runs with a 3rd-place finish at Charlotte last weekend and now I’m looking for them to continue that momentum here at “The Tricky Triangle.” Jimmie Johnson is a three-time winner at Pocono Raceway and is consistently one of the contenders when the Sprint Cup Series comes to this track in Pennsylvania. In fact, in seven of the last ten Pocono races, Johnson has ended up finishing 6th or better. Not too bad. In the two events here last season, JJ was able to walk away with 3rd- and 6th-place finishes, and that success is, without a doubt, due to the relationship that he has with crew chief Chad Knaus. Also, the latter is one of the best in the garage area at making strategy calls on race day, and we all know how much that has come into play here at Pocono lately. This #48 Chevrolet is another car that has been fast since the teams unloaded this weekend, and in Happy Hour Jimmie was able to post the 3rd-fastest lap after starting out that final practice session with a long run. There should be quite a few leaders in this year’s Axalta 400, and Johnson is probably going to be one of them.
3. Brad Keselowski – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $9,100 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium-to-Low Risk**
Clear air is going to be important once we go green here at Pocono–according to some of the crew chiefs–and nobody is going to have cleaner air to start the race than Brad Keselowski. He’s also going to have the best pit stall on pit road, and that should give him a little boost as well (as long as the #2 pit crew does its job). Finally, Keselowski was one of the few drivers that tested here at Pocono, so that has to be worth something. The Blue Deuce was 6th-fastest in Happy Hour, which is respectable, and Kez ran 27 laps in that final session. We’re going to have long green flag runs during the race this weekend so it’s important to maintain speed as well. Looking at Brad’s history here at Pocono Raceway, he’s pretty much feast or famine. In twelve career starts here, Kez has posted five finishes of 6th or better (including one victory) while none of his other starts have ended with him inside the top 15. With that being said, there are quite a few reasons to like Keselowski this weekend in addition to the aforementioned points. Last week at Charlotte, he grabbed another top 5 finish, and that makes it four top 10 results in a row for Kez in Sprint Cup action. Also, this #2 Ford tends to get the best fuel mileage in the garage, and we’ve seen fuel mileage come into play here at Pocono before. Also, I regard Paul Wolfe as one of the best strategically-minded crew chiefs in the garage area, so don’t be surprised if Brad Keselowski is challenging for the Axalta 400 win this weekend.
