Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be a factor at Michigan. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been a fantasy ace. In the combined races on this sub-track type he has the best driver rating, led the most laps, has ran the most fastest laps, has a 5.7 average running position and a misleading 11.8 average finish. At the last high-speed intermediate track visited he thoroughly thumped the competition. Kansas and Auto Club are the two intermediate tracks that I feel have the highest correlation to Michigan and he ran extremely well at both of those venues. In 2015 at Michigan Truex Jr. had a phenomenal season and crossed the finish line in 3rd both events. On Sunday he has a great chance to repeat his success because a few weeks ago he took part in tire testing at Michigan. My only concern about him is a summer collapse like he had last year following his first win. Truex Jr. has had good long run speed this weekend. His Happy Hour ten lap average ranked as the best, and his practice #2 ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best.
Michigan Track History – Martin Truex Jr. had a great year at Michigan in 2015. In both races he finished 3rd. Also between the combined events he earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. Last August when the high down-force package was used he started deep in the field but raced his way up to his 3rd place result. Last June Martin Truex Jr. had a strong performance. He started 9th, had a 7th place average running position, finished 3rd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In 2014 he had a tough year crashing in both races and walking away with results of 36th and 37th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,300

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2) Joey Logano (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano will be tough to beat at Michigan. He’s a former winner and since he’s been in the #22 car he belongs in the conversation of being the best driver at Michigan. On Sunday he’s starting on the pole, recently at Michigan that has proven to be a tremendous advantage. Three of the last five Michigan races have been won from where Logano is starting. Also the last time Logano started first at Michigan he won. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks Logano has been strong. In the last 3 races on this sub-track type he’s had top 5 potential every race despite what his results indicate. I view Kansas as a mini-Michigan and at that venue he was contending for a top five until he was caught up in a late wreck.
Michigan Track History – Logano is a phenomenal performer at Michigan. Since 2013 in the #22 car he’s finished in the top ten every race, has the best average finish (5.7), led the most laps, has the second best average running position (6.8) and the second best driver rating. Last August when a vastly different rules package was used he finished 7th. In spring 2015 he ran out of gas under green but rallied to finish 5th. In August 2014 he had a phenomenal car and was race winner Jeff Gordon’s main competitor. In that race he finished 3rd, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 86 laps. In June 2014 he had a very strong performance. He finished 9th, had a 6th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 29 laps. In the race he performed better than his result and had top five potential but had inferior pit strategy at the end. In August 2013 Logano raced his way to victory lane from the pole. Additionally in that race he earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 51 laps.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,800

Further Recommended Reading – Michigan Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Practice Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page

3) Carl Edwards (Starting – 11th) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Carl Edwards has elite car control and when the level of difficulty rises drivers of his caliber shine. For that very reason Brad Keselowski once called him the most talented driver in the series. This weekend the level of difficulty might very well be sky high with the new “lower down-force package.” On Sunday I think Carl Edwards will be one of the drivers to beat. This year he ranks as one of the best drivers at intermediate tracks and Michigan has historically been a good venue for him. In practice Carl Edwards really seemed to like his car. In practice #2 he had the quickest overall speed and the 6th best ten lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best.
Michigan Track History – Michigan has been a great track for Carl Edwards throughout his career. He’s been to victory lane twice, has a 9.7 average finish and has had a result in the top ten 70% percent of the time. Last fall when the high-down force package was used he ran well and was a consistent front runner. In the race he finished 6th and led 5 laps. In spring 2015 he ran well. He had a 5th place average running position, earned the 6th best driver rating, led 41 laps but finished 12th. Late in the race he was trying to win on fuel mileage but the rain arrived late which resulted in him pitting under green. In 2014 when he drove the #99 car and it wasn’t competitive he had a pair of 23rd place finishes. In 13 of the 14 races prior to that he finished in the top 12. That’s pretty good in my book.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $9,500