Sonoma Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Toyota/Save Mart 350
The Sprint Cup Series cars will be turning left and right this weekend at Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. This is the first of two road course races on the schedule and I can guarantee that most teams are going to have an up and down day on Sunday. The thing with the races here at Sonoma is that they often come down to strategy, and it’s not always the best car that ends up in victory lane. Also, very few drivers are consistently good here, and it’s not uncommon for a “surprise” driver to end up in victory lane. Road course races are also an excellent opportunity to use some drivers that typically don’t end up on your race day rosters.
The schedule was a little different this weekend with two practices on Friday followed by qualifying (and only qualifying) on Saturday. This means that it’s hard to differentiate practice speeds in terms of qualifying trim or race trim. Anyway, here are the speeds from both sessions: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, here are our in-depth notes for each practice as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Carl Edwards won the pole for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
P.S.: Please read this quick write-up I did, “Approaching Sonoma From a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective.”
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Sonoma
1. Carl Edwards – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $9,100 – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl has a great record over at the other road course track (Watkins Glen) and that success is starting to translate into good runs here at Sonoma as well. Edward finally got a win here in the wine country during the 2014 race, and that makes it three top 5 finishes for him in his last five starts at this race track. Carl ended up finishing 40th in this race last season but let’s not forget that he wrecked with about 30 laps to go and while running 6th. He had a good car in that race and he might have an even better race car this time around. The #19 Toyota was 5th-fastest on the Practice #1 speed chart and then when Happy Hour was complete, Edwards ranked 4th among his Sprint Cup peers. After a very rough month of May, this #19 team has posted 8th- and 6th-place finishes at Pocono and Michigan and is looking to keep that momentum going here in Sonoma. They definitely have the driver and the car to do so, now it just comes down to the execution on race day. The 1st-place starting spot doesn’t hurt either. Don’t under-value the speed of this pit crew, by the way. That’s worth a couple of extra spots in my book.
2. Kurt Busch – Starts 4th – DraftKings Price: $10,700 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
There’s not a whole lot of bad things you can say about Kurt Busch this weekend. He rattled off another top 10 finish at Michigan a couple of weeks ago, giving him 13 results inside that mark through the first 15 races of the 2016 season. That’s usually the type of consistency we only see in Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. Now we’re at Sonoma, where Kurt has one win under his belt (back in 2011) and four top 5s in the last five events. And I don’t know about you, but when I think of Kurt Busch and Sonoma, I flash back to the 2012 race where he finished 3rd in that Phoenix Racing Chevrolet despite having a bunch of mechanical issues with the car. The point is, Kurt is one of the best road course racers in the Sprint Cup garage area and he has the momentum going right now, which is one thing I actually do take into account at these road course events (simply because we never really race at them). This weekend the #41 Chevrolet wasn’t super fast on the practice speed charts, but let’s not forget that you’d rather be comfortable and somewhat-fast here rather than uncomfortable and ultra-fast. Kurt Busch is one of the best Fantasy NASCAR picks this weekend and probably one of the safest as well.
3. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 15th – DraftKings Price: $10,100 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Six Time” has only been to victory lane once in his career here at Sonoma Raceway (back in 2010), but he’s still one of the best fantasy picks when the Sprint Cup Series stops here. When you think about it, you have one of the most talented drivers and one of the smartest crew chiefs in the garage, on the same team, with some of the best race cars. That is precisely why Jimmie Johnson is on a seven-race streak of top 10 finishes at this track. Even more impressive is the fact that he has had a triple-digit driver rating in all seven of those races as well. Momentum-wise, JJ is in quite a bit of a slump, with six finishes of 15th or worse in the last eight Sprint Cup races. Still, he’s too good here at Sonoma to simply write him off. The #48 Chevrolet was on top of the ten-lap average chart during Practice #1 on Friday but could never really put down a super fast lap in either of the practice sessions. I’m not too worried about that, though, because Jimmie has a great long run car and it seems comfortable for him–and those two attributes are going to be what lead him to a solid finish here in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350.
