Kentucky Fantasy NASCAR Post Practice Predictions / Confidence Rankings Picks
This week NASCAR is visiting Kentucky. It should be viewed as a new track because it’s been reconfigured, and repaved. Hopefully you read our post earlier this week about How To Approach Kentucky. The most important attribute I want in a driver is previous success at 1.5 mile tracks this year. Hopefully you seen this Chart I made earlier this week which shows stats for tracks of this length. Starting up front will be very important. I think passing will be difficult and historically repave races have been a lot like follow the leader (Starting Lineup).
This week there was no shortage of practice because the cars seen the track four times! All of our Practice Notes & Practice Speeds can be conveniently found in our Practice Notes / Practice Speeds Center. Also I would recommend you check out our Practice Speed Cheat Sheet which shows you all of the practice times for the weekend. Finally I’ll note that this is a combined Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions post. Regular posts will resume next week. Thanks for understanding.
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1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat at Kentucky. When testing was conducted here about a month ago his crew chief was happy with how it went, and he had one of the fastest cars. When his crew chief is happy it’s typically a sign that he’ll be really good. This year at 1.5 mile tracks Kevin Harvick has been a fantasy ace. He has the best average finish (5.4), has scored the 2nd most points, has a 5.8 average running position, and is one of just two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. In the last two races at 1.5 mile tracks he’s finished 2nd. One attribute I’ll note about Kevin Harvick is that he runs really well at intermediate tracks with new surfaces.
Weekend Report – With qualifying being rained out Kevin Harvick will start on the pole. That’s a notable advantage because this will be a track position race. During practice sessions for Kentucky Harvick has shown good long run speed. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. In practice #3 I think his team did some experimenting. In Happy Hour he had the 6th quickest lap, and the 4th best ten lap average.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick wrecked at Daytona and finished 39th. In the four races prior to that he finished in the top ten and had a 5.5 average finish.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,600
Further Recommended Reading – PROS Rankings – 1.5 Mile Tracks, Drivers who tested at Kentucky, Kentucky Personal / Comparative Fantasy Values, Driver Pages, Fantasy NASCAR Similar Track Guide, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page
2) Joey Logano (Starting – 4th)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano is a big fan of the “Lowest Down Force Package.” Since its debut he’s 2 for 2, having wins in the All-Star Race and at Michigan. On Saturday night he could easily make it 3 for 3. When you combine his prowess in that package with his momentum that you’ll read about below it’s hard to foresee him being a fantasy let down. This year at 1.5 mile tracks Joey Logano has been one of the best. In the last four races at tracks of this length he’s been top five good despite what his results show. I think Las Vegas and Kansas are likely the two most similar tracks to Kentucky and at those venues he ran well. At Las Vegas he earned the best driver rating and finished 2nd. At Kansas he was top five good until he was taken out in a late wreck. Michigan is the one points paying race where the Lowest Down Force Package was used and at that venue he was dominant leading 138 laps and racing his way to victory lane.
Weekend Report – Joey Logano never ran ten consecutive laps in any practice session this weekend. In Happy Hour he made a 9 lap run and his final lap was pretty good. On Saturday night Logano is starting in 4th. In 3 of the 4 races at high-speed intermediate tracks when he’s started in the top 4 this year he’s finished in the top 3.
Momentum – Joey Logano has five straight top tens. Over that stretch he’s scored the most points and has a 4.4 average finish. In the last four races he’s finished in the top five.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,100
3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 6th)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a strong competitor at Kentucky and should be on your short list of fantasy options. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he’s been an elite performer and has arguably been the best driver. In our special edition, 2016 PROS Rankings 1.5 Mile Track post I have him slotted in at #1 for the season. In the five combined races at tracks of this length he has two wins and has finished in the top five in 4 of the 5 races. The one race he didn’t was at Charlotte where he was top ten strong but got into the wall late. At 1.5 mile tracks minus that event he has a 2.3 average finish for the season. Kansas and Las Vegas are the two 1.5 mile tracks that I think have the highest correlation to Kentucky and at those venues he had results of 1st and 4th. One aspect I like about Kyle Busch is that he’s a quick adapter and has a history of winning first races following rules changes/ track debuts (Bristol COT Debut, Kentucky 2011 Track Debut, Kentucky Low Down Force Debut, Indy High-Down Force Debut). About a month ago Kyle Busch tested at Kentucky so you can be assured the #18 team will be well prepared.
Weekend Report – Kentucky doesn’t have a lot of grip and that has led to Kyle Busch having some very loose moments. I think he’ll be better prepared than anyone to race on Saturday night because of all the extra track time he’ll gain by racing in the Truck and Xfinity Series. This weekend his car has shown a lot of speed, especially in practices 3 & 4. In Happy Hour he had the 5th quickest overall lap, and the 3rd best ten lap average.
Momentum – Following his win at Kansas in May, Kyle Busch had four straight results of 30th or worse. In the last two races he’s rebounded and has back to back top tens. Last week he finished runner-up.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,200
