Loudon Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Track position is going to be king here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend, but it should be noted that it’s not impossible to make your way through the field here at Loudon. Matt Kenseth won the fall race here last season after starting 13th, and only one of the last seven winners here has started inside the top 5. That’s interesting to note. Jimmie Johnson won the pole for Sunday’s New Hampshire 301, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. We ran two practices on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Be sure to check out our notes for each session as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Loudon
1. Kyle Busch – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $10,500 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Rowdy is coming off of a 37th-place finish here at Loudon last fall but don’t forget that he blew a tire and ended up in the garage in that race. He was running inside of the top 10 before that happened. When you disregard that finish, though, Kyle Busch is about as solid as they come here at “The Magic Mile.” He’s the defending winner of this race and has finished 1st or 2nd in four of the last six races here overall. He also ended up 8th in the 2014 fall race at this track. This is a venue that requires top talent in order to master the track, and when you combine that with the fact that the Gibbs cars have been great here over the past few years, it’s hard to make any sort of case against picking Kyle Busch this weekend. About the only negative thing I can come up with is that this #18 team hasn’t been the most reliable lately, with five finishes outside of the top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races. We all know that Rowdy can win literally any weekend, though, so that point is pretty moot. As far as practice goes, the #18 Toyota was 7th in overall speed and 2nd in terms of ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, he ranked 5th and 6th on those two charts, respectively. Kyle Busch has been a top 5 threat in almost all of the short and flat track races this season and that should be the case at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday as well.
2. Carl Edwards – Starts 13th – DraftKings Price: $10,100 – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl has never gone to victory lane here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but it’s really only a matter of time. He owns a career average finish of 13.3 over twenty-three starts here, which is 6th-best among all active drivers. The reason I say it’s only a matter of time before Carl wins here is partly because he’s with Joe Gibbs Racing now–which has been great here at Loudon as of late–as well as the fact that Edwards has really emerged as one of the best short/flat track racers in the Sprint Cup Series. He almost won at Phoenix this year, had a good run at Martinsville, and dominated at Richmond and Bristol. When you combine all of that with how the #19 Toyota ran here last season–on the pole for both races, finishing 5th and 7th–signs are looking good for Carl here on Sunday. In the first practice on Saturday, pretty much the entire garage was pointing toward Edwards as the car to beat. He had the fastest lap, best five-lap average, and best ten-lap average as well. In Happy Hour, he was 8th on the overall speed chart and 2nd in ten-lap average. I think the #19 Toyota is going to be one of the cars to beat here on Sunday despite the mediocre qualifying effort from Edwards.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 8th – DraftKings Price: $10,700 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Is it time to start questioning this team’s “clutch” gene? The #4 Chevrolet was the best car once again at Kentucky last weekend, but a poor pit strategy relegated Harvick to a disappointing 9th-place finish. I know these races now don’t matter to teams already locked into the Chase this year, but it sure is frustrating for us Fantasy NASCAR players. Harvick now has just one top 5 finish in the last seven Sprint Cup races, and post just seven top 5 results in the first half of the season. That’s actually pretty low for an elite team like this. Anyway, looking at Loudon, the #4 Chevrolet should be one of the cars to beat on Sunday, depending on how the race plays out of course. Harvick led 59 laps in this race one year ago en route to a 3rd-place finish, and in the fall race he led over 66% of the race but ended up finishing 21st after running out of gas. As far as this weekend goes, the #4 Chevrolet ended up 8th in the final round of qualifying, which is actually pretty good for this team. That’s good because track position is going to mean a lot here on Sunday. When it came to practice speeds, Harvick was 4th-fastest in Practice #2 with the 11th-best ten-lap average, and he ranked 4th and 1st on those two charts in Happy Hour, respectively. Harvick should once again have a great car on the long runs this weekend, and that’s going to pay off big time during the race. I just hope that Sunday’s New Hampshire 301 doesn’t come down to fuel mileage because that sure seems to be a weakness of crew chief Rodney Childers.
