Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Jimmie Johnson – Sunday will be Jimmie Johnson’s biggest race of his career and he’ll have the opportunity to join the “7 by 7 club”, that only Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt are members of. I think he has a great chance to join the Mount Rushmore of NASCAR. His team has had weeks to focus on this event and you gotta believe they’ll be bringing their A++ game. I also view Johnson as a clutch performer and now that he’s within striking distance, I think he has a great chance to close the deal. In recent races at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been one of the strongest performers. Over the last five races on this track type he’s scored the most points, has the best average finish (6.8), best average running position (6.2), and has led the most laps (310). At Homestead it’s hard to evaluate Johnson’s fantasy value because rarely has he had a meaningful race here. Currently at Homestead he has three straight 9th place results. Last fall Johnson had an extremely fast car and was stronger than his 9th place finish. Early in the race around lap 30 NASCAR black flagged him under green after his pit crew made some body adjustments that they weren’t keen to. That had him at the tail end of the lead lap for much of the race. That makes his result more remarkable. In 2014 Johnson had a very strong showing. He earned the 5th best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position and finished 9th. Performance wise I thought he was slightly better than his result. In 2013 when Johnson won his 6th championship he was obviously points racing. He never drove his car hard and stayed away from the wall opting to run the low line (slower way around the track). In that race Johnson started 7th, had a 7th place average running position, earned the 6th best driver rating and finished 9th. In the race Johnson performed better than his result. On the last straightaway alone he gave up 3 positions waving people by. (Yahoo A Driver)
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Joey Logano – Joey Logano will be a threat to win at Homestead. In recent races at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been a fantasy ace. In the playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks minus Charlotte nobody has been better. In his incident free races (Chicagoland, Kansas and Texas) he has a 2.3 average finish, 4.3 average running position and has led 181 laps. Last fall at Homestead Logano had a great car and was a serious threat to win. In the race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 4th and led 72 laps. In 2014 Logano had a great car but finished 16th. That result doesn’t represent his level of performance. Strength wise I thought he was top five good but his pit crew buckled under the pressure late. His first issue came with 44 laps to go. At that time he was running in 5th but his crew dropped a lug nut and it dropped him to 11th. Then during a late caution with 20 laps to go during a pit stop his car fell off the jack and that really plummeted him in the running order. Additionally in the race it should be noted he had a 6th place average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. In 2013 he had a solid race in the season finale. He started 3rd, finished 8th, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. He was never a threat to win but he did consistently run in the top ten. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch will be one of the drivers to beat at Homestead. He’s the defending champion and in the Chase at 1.5 mile tracks he ranks as one of the best. In the playoffs at tracks of this length he’s scored the most points, has the best average finish (6.0) and is one of just three drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Last year at Homestead Kyle Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. It should be noted however that if there wasn’t a late caution and Brad Keselowksi didn’t pick the wrong lane to restart in then he likely wouldn’t have won. Performance wise he was really 3rd place good. In addition to finishing first it should be noted he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 41 laps. In 2014 he finished 39th but that result in no way reflects his performance. That finish is the product of him breaking his rear axle on lap 117 on pit road. Just prior to his issue he was running in 5th. In 2013 Busch finished 7th, had a 6th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. In 2012 Kyle Busch’s car was in a league of its own. In that race he led 191 laps, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and finished 4th. If the end of the race didn’t come down to fuel mileage than he likely would’ve won. (Yahoo A Driver)
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier
