Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016 Stats : 0 Wins, 5 Top Fives, 6 Top Tens, 15.6 Average Finish, 14.7 Average Running Position, 53 Laps Led (Missed 18 races)
Strengths – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a pretty solid driver across all the different track types. In recent years he\’s even stepped up his game at road courses. In 2017 I would look for him to be at his best at big flat tracks, short tracks, plate tracks, and intermediate tracks where the surface has aged.
Weaknesses – There\’s a lot of unknowns regarding Dale Earnhardt Jr. about his health. For this preview I\’m treating it as a non-issue. He may be perfectly fine, but it should be noted he might be one hard crash from missing more seat time. In terms of on track weaknesses, he has no gaping hole in his resume. He\’s solid across all the track types but isn\’t often in contention to win.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet Stats Page
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a strong performer at intermediate tracks. As you see on the side, year after year he performs at a high-level. Between 2015 and 2010 he ranked between the 6th to 13th best driver in terms of points accumulated.
In 2016 on this track type Dale Earnhardt Jr. was a pretty good performer. He competed in 8 races on this track type and minus Michigan #1 where he was involved in a wreck he had a 9.3 average finish. Also it should be noted that some of his later results on this track type were likely slightly weighted down because Hendrick Motorsports was in a slump.
In 2017 on this track type I expect him to continue to perform at a high level. Look for him to be at his best at Atlanta, Texas, Michigan and Las Vegas.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a very strong performer at flat tracks. On a year to year basis you can always count on him being one of the better drivers in the series.
In 2017 I would look for him to be at his best on this track type at Pocono and Phoenix. At Pocono Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of the best drivers in the series. In 6 of the last 7 races there he\’s finished in the top five. In 3 of his last 5 races he\’s finished in the top two. Last year when he competed at Pocono he was very competitive and finished runner-up.
Indy is the other big flat track on the schedule. He didn\’t race there last year but in 3 of the last 4 races there he\’s finished in the top ten.
Look for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to be very competitive at shorter flat tracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire). At Phoenix he should definitely be on your radar. In 6 of the last 7 races in the desert he\’s finished in the top ten. Last spring when he raced there he finished 5th. In fall 2015 he finished first. In fall 2016 when Alex Bowman raced at Phoenix he led the most laps (194) and finished 6th.
At New Hampshire he should have a solid showing. In 4 of the last 5 Loudon races he\’s finished in the top ten. In 2016 he missed both events.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a strong short track driver. He\’s a previous winner at all three venues. Last year he competed at each track once and had a 9.6 average finish for the combined events.
Last year on this track type Dale Earnhardt Jr. had his best performance at Bristol and finished runner-up. That\’s remarkable when you consider his car didn\’t get up to speed when the race started which dropped him down a few laps immediately. In his career at Bristol he\’s finished in the top five about a quarter of the time and in the top ten about half the time. Bristol is also home to his best top twenty finish percentage (73%).
At Martinsville he\’s a good performer. He\’s a recent champion and in 4 of the last 6 races he\’s finished in the top ten. Last year when he competed at Martinsville he finished 14th, earned the 13th best driver rating and had a 14th place average running position.
At Richmond he\’s a competitive performer. Since 2014 he\’s finished between 5th and 14th and has a 10.6 average finish. Last year he finished 13th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is an elite performer at restrictor plate tracks. When it comes to this discipline of racing he ranks as one of the best of the best. It should also be noted that he\’s a very popular pick. That means that if you want to get out of sync with the competition fading him isn\’t a bad idea.
2016 was a brutal year for Dale Earnhardt Jr. at plate tracks. He wrecked early, and often. He competed in three races and in all of them he finished poorly.
In 2017 on this track type I expect him to be one of the strongest performers.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has become one of the better road course drivers in the series. In recent years on this track type he\’s been about as solid as they come between both venues. In his last 5 races on this track type he has an 8.6 average finish.
At Sonoma Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 0 for 15 in terms of finishing in the top ten until 2014 when he finished 3rd. Over his last three Sonoma races he has a 7th place finish average finish. Last year he finished 11th. In his two Sonoma starts prior to that he had finishes of 3rd and 7th. One attribute that should be noted about him at Sonoma is that he\’s been fast over long runs.
At Watkins Glen Dale Earnhardt Jr. has back to back 11th place results. Last year he didn\’t compete at Watkins Glen. In 2017 I think it might be hard for him to finish well again. The track was repaved and that will likely suppress his long run strength.
