Paul Menard 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Paul Menard 2016 Stats : Points Finish 25th, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 3 Top Tens, 22.0 Average Finish, 20.5 Average Running Position, 20 Laps Led
Strengths – In 2017 your best chance for getting a successful afternoon out of Paul Menard will likely be at restrictor plate tracks and high-speed intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses – The #27 team wasn\’t very good in 2016 and lacked competitiveness across the board. Last season he finished in the top fifteen 25% percent of the time, and in the top twenty just 53% percent of the time. His 22.0 average finish snapped a five season streak of having an average finish in the teens.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Intermediate tracks have historically been Paul Menard\’s best track type. At these venues you should look for him to be at his best at tracks where the surface is relatively new (Michigan and Kansas).
In 2016 on this track type Paul Menard had a down year. He had a 20.6 average finish and only had a result in the top fifteen 24% percent of the time. From a performance perspective you could usually count on him finishing between the high-teens and low-twenties. For the season he scored the 20th most points on this track type. In the four prior seasons he scored between the 12th to 16th most points.
In 2017 I think we might see some slight improvement from him at these venues. Look for a typical good day for him on this track type to be a mid-teens to high-teens finish.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Paul Menard will never be known as a flat track driver. Last year on this track type he scored the 26th most points and had a 24.1 average finish. Additionally last season he had two 10th place finishes and three results of 33rd or worse.
Indy ranks as his best flat track. He won there in 2011 (fuel mileage) and since then minus 2014 he has a 10.2 average finish. Last season he finished 10th.
Pocono is the other big flat track on the schedule and it\’s been a tough venue for him. Since 2013 he\’s only once finished better than 26th. Last year he had results of 33rd and 35th. In 4 of the last 5 Pocono races he\’s finished in the 30\’s.
At the shorter flat tracks he\’s steadily been running better then he did earlier in his career. Last fall at Phoenix he finished 10th. In spring 2016 he cooked the bead of his tire and crashed which led to his 38th place finish. In 2015 he had respectable results of 13th and 14th.
At New Hampshire he\’s finished between 15th and 25th every race since 2013. Last fall he finished 25th. In four of the five New Hampshire races prior to that he finished between 15th and 19th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
In 2016 Paul Menard started out the season strong on this track type, but down the stretch the results got worse and worse. Over the last four races at short tracks in 2016 he had a 29.75 average finish.
If you\’re looking to pick Paul Menard at a short track your best option is likely Bristol. Last August he wrecked and finished 32nd. In 6 of the 9 Bristol races prior to that he finished between 6th and 11th. In spring 2016 he finished 15th.
Martinsville also hasn\’t been a bad track for him. Last fall he didn\’t run well and finished 25th. It was head scratching because in the spring race he was very competitive and legitimately finished 8th. Since 2014 at Martinsville he has a 15.8 average finish.
At Richmond last fall he finished 40th after wrecking. In the five RIR races prior to that he had a 21st place average finish.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Paul Menard is a capable performer at plate tracks and is able to sneak in good results. In 2015 on this track type he scored the 4th most points in the series. Last year he wasn\’t as successful and scored the 25th most points. In 2011 on this track type he scored the most points in the series.
Last summer at Daytona Menard wrecked and finished 36th. In 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished between 16th and 18th. His overall Daytona average finish is 20.7.
At Talladega he\’s been moderately successful recently. Over the last seven races minus the two races he was involved in an accident he\’s finished in the top 13 every race and has a 6.4 average finish. Last year Menard had results of 13th and 26th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Paul Menard isn\’t a flashy performer at road courses, but he\’s capable of getting the job done, assuming you\’re having reasonable expectations.
Between the two road courses I would trust him more at Sonoma. Excluding his first start he hasn\’t finished worse than 22nd. Over the last four Sonoma races he has a 12th place average finish. Last year he finished 16th. In the three prior seasons he had results of 5th, 13th, and 14th.
Last year at Watkins Glen Menard finished 22nd. In 3 of the four Watkins Glen races prior to that he finished between 12th and 17th.
