Jamie McMurray 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Jamie McMurray 2016 Stats : Points Finish 13th, 0 Wins, 2 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens, 15.8 Average Finish, 16.0 Average Running Position, 0 Laps Led
Strengths – Jamie McMurray is a solid driver across many different track types. In 2017 look for him to have his best days at shorter flat tracks, intermediate tracks and short tracks.
Weaknesses – Jamie McMurray is a risky fantasy prospect at restrictor plate tracks. He\’s a tempting option with two wins at both venues but his risk level is just too high.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Jamie McMurray is a capable driver at intermediate tracks. Last year in incident free races on this track type he was pretty good. In 2016 since Michigan #1 minus Dover #2 and Kansas #2, he had a 10.5 average finish and only had one result south of 15th.
Three races I would like to point out over that stretch are the two Michigan races and Kentucky. In those events he had results of 7th, 8th and 9th. What makes those races notable is that the 2017 \”Lowest Down Force\” rules package was used. Let\’s hope that those results correlate into continued success.
In 2017 I would look for McMurray to have a solid season on this track and come home with a fair number of good results.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Over the last four seasons at flat tracks McMurray has scored between the 7th to 11th most points. Last year he scored the 11th most points and had a 15.4 average finish. I will note his season really wasn\’t that great, his main strength was avoiding really bad results. In 5 of the 7 races he finished between 16th and 20th.
From a career perspective Indy ranks as his best overall track. He\’s a past champion and his average finish is 15.0. Recently his results haven\’t been that great there. Over the last five races he\’s finished between 15th and 22nd. Last year he finished 19th.
Last year at Pocono he finished 20th and 17th. In the two prior seasons he was more successful there and had three top tens and a 9.75 average finish.
New Hampshire will likely be his best chance to get a good finish. He\’s had some misleading results there recently but he has had some good performances. Last year he had results of 6th and 19th.
At Phoenix he\’s put up some good results in recent seasons. Going back to 2014 it ranks as his 6th best overall track (11.3 average finish). Last year he had results of 11th and 16th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Jamie McMurray is a good short track driver. He has solid dark horse fantasy potential at all three venues. In 2016 on this track type he scored the 9th most points and had a 12.2 average finish. In 2015 on this track type he scored the 2nd most points.
Martinsville has been a good track for him. Based on his average finish it statistically ranks as his 5th best track. In 3 of the last 4 Martinsville races he\’s finished in the top ten. Last year he had results of 8th and 23rd. It should also be noted that Martinsville is home to his best top ten finish percentage (54%).
At Bristol he\’s been a strong competitor. Over the last five races at Thunder Valley he\’s finished between 8th and 14th. His average finish over that stretch is 10.8. Last year he had results of 8th and 13th.
Richmond has been one of his better tracks in recent years. Since 2014 it ranks as his second best track overall (9.6 average finish). Last year he had results of 7th and 16th. In the five RIR races prior to 2016 he had three results of 4th and two results of 16th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Jamie McMurray is a high-risk/ high-reward driver at plate tracks. He\’s a driver who I really wouldn\’t feel comfortable picking, but every once in a while he comes home with a really good result.
At both plate tracks he has two wins but statistically they both rank as some of his worst tracks. Talladega is home to his 19th worst average finish and Daytona is statistically his worst track.
At Daytona McMurray hasn\’t finished in the top ten since summer 2013. Last year he had results of 17th and 37th. Since his last top ten he has three results in the teens and three results of 27th or worse.
At Talladega he most recently won in fall 2013. Since then he\’s had results of 4th, 11th, 19th, 29th, 35th and 39th. Last year he finished 4th and 19th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Jamie McMurray is a good road course racer. He has the talent level to run well at both venues.
Between the two road courses he\’s been better at Watkins Glen recently. Last year he finished 8th. Since 2013 minus 2015 when he was involved in an accident he has an 11th place average finish.
Last year at Sonoma he finished 17th. Over the last three races there he has a 10.6 average finish. In 6 of the last 9 races at that west coast track he\’s finished in the teens.
