Daniel Suarez 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
In 2017 Daniel Suarez, the reigning Xfinity Series champion will drive the #19 after Carl Edwards sudden retirement. He’ll be piloting elite equipment, but he has zero top series starts under his belt. From a season long perspective I would look for his level of success to be similar to Ryan Blaney’s rookie effort. He’ll get in some good results, but have his fair share of problems along the way.
Last year in the lower series Suarez was impressive in his championship effort, but it’s important to note he had a significant equipment advantage over much of the field. For the season he had 3 wins and an 8.0 average finish. In the Xfinity playoffs you had to love his level of consistency. He finished in the top 5 every race and came up big with 2 wins.
One aspect I like about Suarez is that he’s a “learner.” When you study his 2015 to 2016 results in the Xfinity Series you’ll see that. In 2015 he had 0 wins, 8 top fives, 18 top tens and led 83 laps. In 2016 he had 3 wins, 19 top fives, 27 top tens and led 347 laps. His learning aspect will come into play in 2017 and I think he’ll get better as the season progresses.
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Strengths – In 2017 I would look for Suarez to be at his best at intermediate tracks. Joe Gibbs cars are strong at those venues and that strength will carry over to Suarez. Consistency was a very notable strength of his in the lower series.
Weaknesses – Daniel Suarez is a rookie and that means rookie mistakes will be made along the way. From a track type perspective I think short tracks and plate tracks won’t be very friendly.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
In 2017 I would look for Suarez to get better at intermediate tracks as the season progresses. By the end of the season he might prove to have “High” fantasy value at these venues. From a performance perspective look for him to get some top tens and likely have “teens finish fantasy value” on most weekends.
One attribute I like about Suarez is his elite equipment. It will serve him very well at these venues, especially with the new rules package coming into play. Very few drivers will have a better car underneath them. Last year on this track type 3 of the 4 JGR cars ranked in the top 8 in terms of points accumulated at intermediate tracks.
Last year in the Xfinity Series all three of Suarez’s wins came on this track type at a variety of different tracks. I like the versatility that it shows. He won at Michigan, Dover and Homestead.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Last year in the Xfinity Series at flat tracks Daniel Suarez had a great year. He had a 5.6 average finish and had a result between 3rd and 9th every race. Since he was in superior equipment and the level of competition isn’t similar to NASCAR’s top series I wouldn’t read into it too much. During most weekends on this track type in 2017 I would look for him to be a teen’s driver.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium
I think Daniel Suarez might find things tough at short tracks like most rookies. I think his fantasy ceiling is a result in the teen’s, but you have to tack in a few bad finishes.
Last year in the Xfinity Series on this track type at “top series tracks” Suarez finished between 4th and 8th in three of the four races. The one race he finished outside of that range he had problems (Bristol night race).
The Xfinity Series doesn’t visit Martinsville but he’s raced there the last two years in the Truck Series. In that division over the last two years he’s had one result of 6th every year, and one result in the teen’s every year.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Daniel Suarez has improved on a year to year basis at plate tracks in the Xfinity Series which is encouraging. Last year in the lower series he had two top tens (7th and 8th) spread between the two plate tracks. In one race he had problems and finished 32nd (summer Daytona).
In 2015 in that series he had a 15th and two results in the thirties.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Joe Gibbs Racing makes strong road course cars and that attribute bodes well for Daniel Suarez. 3 of the 4 JGR cars ranked in the top 8 in terms of points accumulated at these venues in 2016.
On a year to year basis in the Xfinity Series Suarez showed improvement at road courses which you have to like.
Last year on this track type he had two 4th place finishes and a 23rd. In the prior season he had results of 11th, 15th and 24th.
