Jimmie Johnson 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Jimmie Johnson 2016 Stats : Points Finish 1st, 5 Wins, 11 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens, 14.0 Average Finish, 11.8 Average Running Position, 737 Laps Led
Strengths – Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson is clutch performer who\’s capable of winning on any track type. When he brings his A-game he can be unstoppable.
Weaknesses – When Johnson gets into a slump watch out, because it can last a few months which could tank your season.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Jimmie Johnson is an intermediate track fantasy ace. On a year to year basis he ranks as one of the strongest competitors on this track type. In five of the last six seasons at intermediate tracks he\’s ranked in the top five in terms of points accumulated. In 2016 at these venues he tied Harvick for scoring the most points in the series. In the 17 races held on this track type he had 4 wins, 8 top fives, 10 top tens and a 10.4 average finish.
Jimmie Johnson is a good pick at any intermediate track. He\’s won at all of them but two (Chicagoland and Kentucky). 1.5 mile tracks have been an area of great strength for him. In NASCAR history nobody has won at those venues more than him. In 2016 at 1.5 mile tracks he had the most top fives in the series and came up just 1 point short of tying Kyle Busch for the most points accumulated.
In 2017 I think Johnson has a chance to be even stronger on this track type. I think the new rules which will take away down force will play to his car control strength. Set the bar high in terms of expectations for Johnson on this track type, in 2017 I think he\’ll once again rank as one of the best.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Jimmie Johnson is a very strong flat track driver. He\’s good at both the bigger flats, and the smaller flats. I will note between those two sub track types I like him more at the big venues. He\’ll compete for wins at the big tracks, at the smaller flats I would simply look for him to have a solid afternoon.
Last year at flat tracks he had a good, but not great season. He scored the 14th most points and minus Pocono #1 (top five good) and Phoenix #2 (top five good) he had a 10th place average finish. In 4 of the 5 prior seasons on this track type he ranked in the top five in terms of points accumulated.
Indy is a great track for Johnson. He\’s won there four times and has finished in the top three in 3 of the last 5 races. Last year he had a strong car and finished 3rd.
Pocono has been a strong point for him on the schedule. Last year he had a tough season. He was top five good in the spring but wrecked (finished 35th). In the fog shortened August event he wasn\’t a factor and finished 16th. In 2015 he swept the top six with results of 3rd and 10th. In the 16 Pocono races prior to 2016 minus an August 2014 wreck he had a 6.5 average finish and didn\’t have any results outside the top 15.
At New Hampshire he\’s been a solid competitor. In 4 of the last 5 races he\’s finished between 6th and 12th. Last year he finished 8th and 12th.
Phoenix has also been a solid track for him. Last fall he had a great car and might\’ve been a factor to win but he was black flagged and later wrecked (finished 38th). In the spring event he finished 11th. Since 2013 minus last fall, and a fall 2014 wreck he has a 6.3 average finish.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Jimmie Johnson is an elite talent at flat tracks. At all three venues he\’s a solid competitor. Last year on this track type he had the best average finish (9.0), and was just 1 point shy of tying Kevin Harvick for the most points at these venues.
Between the three short tracks Martinsville is his clear cut best. He\’s won there 9 times, has finished in the top five 63% percent of the time and in the top ten 80% percent of the time. Last fall he led 92 laps and raced his way to victory lane. One aspect I\’ll note about him at Martinsville is that if the race weekend is cold it\’s not a bad idea to call an audible and look elsewhere. In recent years when Martinsville doesn\’t rubber up he\’s been off.
At Richmond he\’s been strong. Last fall he finished 11th. In the four prior races he finished in the top ten. Over that five race stretch his 6.8 average finish is tied for the third best.
At Bristol he\’s also run well. If his team didn\’t make mistakes on pit road in spring 2016 he would likely have 5 straight top tens. In that race he was competitive but finished 23rd. In August 2016 he finished 7th. In the three Bristol races prior to 2016 he had results of 2nd, 4th and 4th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
I like Johnson at plate tracks but he certainly isn\’t a safe fantasy option. Recently every other year on this track type he\’s rotated between good year / bad year. In 2016 he had a bad year and scored the 26th most points. In the four prior seasons he scored the 2nd most points, 22nd most points, 1st most points and 30th most points. If that trend holds true he\’s due for a good season in 2017.
2016 was a brutal year for Johnson at plate tracks. He only had one result in the top twenty and had a 24.0 average finish.
Between the two plate tracks I like him more at Daytona. Last year he had results of 16th and 35th. In 5 of the 6 races prior to that he finished in the top five. In 2015 he swept the top five with results of 2nd and 5th.
At Talladega he isn\’t as attractive of a fantasy option. He\’s run well there frequently but his results don\’t show it. In 5 of the last 6 races he\’s finished between 18th and 23rd. Last year he finished 22nd and 23rd.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Jimmie Johnson is a good road course driver. He runs well at both venues and is close to a lock for a good result if he has an incident free race.
Between the two road courses he\’s better at Sonoma. He\’s a past champion and over the last 8 races he has a 6.5 average finish. Last year he finished 13th. In 2015 if there wasn\’t a late caution he would\’ve won.
At Watkins Glen he\’s been a solid option. Last year he wrecked and finished dead last. In 4 of the 5 races prior to that he finished in the top ten.
