Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 3rd)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. should be on your short list of favorites at Kanas. This track owes him. In the last two spring races he was the driver to beat until something went wrong late. This year at intermediate tracks he’s been a fantasy ace. Over the four combined races he has the best driver rating and a 5.3 average finish. Las Vegas is the most similar track visited this year and at that venue he led 150 laps and raced his way to victory lane. This weekend it looks like Truex Jr. has a very strong car. In Happy Hour his ten lap average speed ranked as the 5th best. On Saturday night look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kansas Track History – Kansas has been a great track for Martin Truex Jr. Over the last five races he has the 3rd best driver rating, a 7.0 average running position and a misleading 10.6 average finish. Last fall he had a strong car but it’s hard to say just how strong he was because he had major fueling issues which caused him to be out of sync with the field. Over the first 100 laps before his issue really surfaced I would estimate his average running position was around 3rd. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th. In spring 2016 he was the class of the field. If he didn’t have to pit a second time during a late pit cycle under green he likely would’ve raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, led 172 laps but finished 14th because of his problems. In 2015 he ran well in both races but had asterisk mark results. In fall 2015 he was about 10th place good but finished 15th after having to serve a pass thru penalty for having an uncontrolled tire. In spring 2015 he was stellar. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 95 laps and finished 9th. That result is very misleading and is the product of bad late pit strategy followed by a poor restart.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,700
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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 8th)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is a super elite performer at Kansas. In 5 of the last 7 races at this 1.5 mile track he’s finished in the top two. The two races he didn’t finish in the top two he had a misleading result. In practice the #4 car was strong. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Saturday night look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kansas Track History – Kevin Harvick runs extremely well at Kansas. As you read above in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top two. Over the last seven Kansas races Harvick has the best driver rating, best average finish (5.1), best average running position (5.3) and has led the most laps. Last fall Harvick had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 74 laps. In spring 2016 he ran extremely well. He finished 2nd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In fall 2015 he was top five good but finished a misleading 16th after having shifter problems late and getting a stop and go penalty under green. In spring 2015 he had a great car and finished 2nd. If there wasn’t a late caution it should be noted he would’ve won. In addition to finishing runner-up he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 53 laps.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400
Further Recommended Reading – Practice Notes / Practice Speeds Center, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings, PROS Rankings Extended Edition, Asterisk Mark Report, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page, DraftKings Average Points Rankings, DraftKings Fall 2016 Points
3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 9th)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson has been a fantasy stud at 1.5 mile tracks. In the last four races at 1.5 mile tracks he’s finished runner-up. This year at intermediate tracks he’s been extremely strong. On this track type in 2017 he has a 1.8 average finish, the second best driver rating and a 5.5 average running position. Over the 7 combined races with the lowest down force package Larson has the best driver rating. Kansas hasn’t been a good track for Larson, but I wouldn’t let that scare you off from selecting him. Larson is performing at a much higher level than he has in the past and I think the good times will continue to roll. In Happy Hour his ten lap average speed ranked as the 4th best.
Kansas Track History – Kyle Larson has a pretty atrocious track record at Kansas, but he’s had some good runs. His average finish is 20.5 and in the last three races he’s finished 29th or worse. Last fall he was likely about mid-teens good but on lap 177 he got into the wall and it led to his 30th place finish. In spring 2016 he was very strong. He had top five potential but late in the race Denny Hamlin made an aggressive move and it ended up with a multi-car wreck that took out Larson. In fall 2015 when his team wasn’t competitive he ran like junk (finished 29th). In spring 2015 he finished 15th but he was better than his result. There was a late caution in that race and it really hurt him since his car was so loose. If the late caution didn’t come out he would’ve finished in the top 5. In fall 2014 he had his best Kansas start. He finished runner-up and earned the 2nd best driver rating.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $9,900
