Dover Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a threat to win at Dover. The #18 team is really clicking right now. He’s fresh off a win and in 3 of the last 5 races this season he’s finished in the top 3. Dover has been a great track for Kyle Busch and when you combine that with his momentum you know he’s primed for a strong showing. Busch is locked into the next round of the Playoffs so his only goal on Sunday is to win and get more Playoff points. On Sunday look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win. In both practice sessions on Saturday Busch had the best 10 lap average.
Dover Track History – Dover has been a great track for Kyle Busch. He’s won here twice, has finished in the top five 44% percent of the time and in the top ten 60% percent of the time. This spring Busch had a great but finished an Asterisk Mark 16th. In the race he had a tire fall off while leading following the first round of pit stops, was burned by a caution coming out at a bad time while running in the top five, and then late in the race he made an unexpected pit stop. Performance wise I thought he was top five good. Last fall he had a very strong showing. He finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 102 laps. In spring 2016 he was around 10th place good but was collected in a “Big One.” In fall 2015 he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 19 laps. In spring 2015 he was top five good but wrecked while running in 3rd with 24 laps to go.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $11,000
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2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting –1st)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat at Dover. He’s the defending champion and has been a factor to win many of the recent races here. In 3 of the last 5 Dover races he’s led +100 laps. Right now no team is better than the #78 and “performance wise” they’ve been good enough to win the last three races this season. With Martin Truex Jr. already locked into the next round of the Playoffs he’ll go all out for another win at his home track. On Sunday look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five, and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has performed at an elite level at Dover. Since 2014 he has a 6.1 average finish, the second best driver rating and has finished in the top 11 every race. This spring he had a great car. He won the first two Stages, finished 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and led 102 laps. Last fall in this particular event he raced his way to victory lane, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 187 laps. In spring 2016 he had one of the best cars but got some damage in “The Big One” that led to his 9th place finish. Additionally he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 47 laps. In fall 2015 he started in the rear of the field and finished 11th. In the three races prior to that he had results of 6th, 7th and 6th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $11,000
Further Recommended Reading – Dover Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Practice Notes/Practice Speeds Center, Dover Speed Cheat Sheet, Dover Starting Lineup, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, Likely Finish Ranges, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page
3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 3rd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be a factor at Dover. He was the class of the field this spring and if there wasn’t a late caution he would’ve won. On Sunday he’ll be looking to right that wrong and I think he has a great chance to win. Dover has historically been a great track and minus the race last fall where he had multiple problems he has a 5.5 average finish and has had a result in the top 11 every race. One attribute I really like about Larson is his momentum. Over the last six races he’s scored the most points had has a 5.3 average finish. On Sunday look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson has performed extremely well at Dover in recent races. In 3 of the last 4 events he’s finished in the top 3. This spring Larson had a great car and would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution which led to him having a bad restart. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had the best PROS Ranking, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 241 laps. Last fall he likely had a great car but he didn’t a chance to show his hand. While he was running in the top ten when the first caution came out he had electrical issues and also got penalized for too many men going over the wall. That dropped him 3 laps down which ended his competitive chances and led to his 25th place finish. In spring 2016 he had a great car and if he would’ve moved Matt Kenseth at the end he would’ve won. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, led 85 laps and earned the 7th best driver rating. In his other four races he had results of 9th, 3rd, 6th and 11th.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $10,200
