The Low Tier – Las Vegas
Michael McDowell – At Las Vegas Michael McDowell will likely be a low-twenties driver. His track record is extremely poor, but other than his start last year I don’t think any of it is applicable. Last year when the checkered flag waved he finished 18th, had a 23rd place average running position and earned the 23rd best driver rating. In all 7 of his other starts he finished 29th or worse.
AJ Allmendinger – At Las Vegas it’s likely not a lot of good will come from picking AJ Allmendinger. “Performance Wise” I think he’ll likely be a low-twenties driver. Last year at 1.5 mile tracks on a weekly basis he was typically a low-twenties to mid-twenties driver. At Las Vegas, Allmendinger’s had a decent performance in 2 of the last 3 races. The bad news is that last year he didn’t run well. In 2017 when the checkered flag waved he finished 24th, had a 26th place average running position and earned the 26th best driver rating. In 2016 at Las Vegas Allmendinger finished 14th and had a 22nd place average running position. His average running position is misleading because during green flag pit stops on lap 85 while he was running in the high-teens he was caught speeding on pit road. In 2015 he had his best Las Vegas race. He finished 6th, earned the 11th best driver rating and had a 12th place average running position.
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Ty Dillon – Ty Dillon doesn’t have a very high fantasy NASCAR ceiling at Las Vegas. If you pick him you should look for him to likely be a high-teens to low-twenties driver. Last year in incident free races at 1.5 mile tracks Dillon almost always finished within the range I mentioned. In the Playoffs at tracks of this length he had a 23.0 average finish and a 23.4 average running position. Last year at Las Vegas in his track debut he finished 21st, had a 22nd place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating.
David Ragan – David Ragan doesn’t have a lot of upside at Las Vegas. I think a low-twenties finish should be considered a really good day for him. In 4 of the last 8 races here he’s finished between 21st and 23rd, in the other four over this stretch he finished between 29th and 32nd. Last year at Las Vegas David Ragan was really bad. When the checkered flag waved he finished 29th and had a 32nd place average running position. In 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished between 31st and 32nd.
Matt DiBenedetto – If a mid-twenties to high-twenties finish sounds good to you then consider Matt Benedetto. Last year in the Playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks he had a 26.2 average finish and a 28.4 average running position. At Las Vegas Benedetto has two starts under his belt. Last year he finished 26th and had a 29th place average running position. In 2016 he finished 31st.
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