Dover Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been an OK performer at Dover. Since fall 2015 minus the race last spring (wrecked) he has a 13th place average finish. Last fall when he was in the Playoffs he had a poor performance. He finished 19th, had a 17th place average running position and earned the 17th best driver rating. Last spring he ran well but finished a misleading 39th. On lap 47 while he was running in 3rd he got into the wall hard. A little later on lap 61 he got into the wall again which was the knock out blow leading to his 39th place finish. In fall 2016 Stenhouse Jr. had a 17th place average running position but finished 11th when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2016 he didn’t have a good car and his 14th place result was aided by attrition. Performance wise he was really about low twenties good. His average running position of 20th better reflects his level of performance. In fall 2015 he had his best Dover result and finished 8th.

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Kasey Kahne –  Dover has been a solid track for Kasey Kahne, but with him driving the #95 things are obviously different now. On Sunday I would look for him to likely be about a 20th to 25th place driver. On a weekly basis this season that’s how he typically stacks up against the competition. Last fall in the #5 he had a solid showing. He finished 14th and had a 15th place average running position. In spring 2017 he had a good car but finished 18th. He ran quite well for much of the race, but at the end I think he was collected in the carnage. Just before the last caution he was running in 13th. Additionally in the race it should be noted he finished 6th in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2 and had an 11th place average running position. In fall 2016 Kahne had an respectable showing. When the checkered flag waved he finished 12th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. In the three races prior to that he had results of 4th, 6th and 4th.

Trevor Bayne – Trevor Bayne has three straight results at Dover in the low-twenties and on Sunday I think that will likely be the case again. Over the last three events his 21.7 average finish matches his 21.7 average running position. Last fall there was nothing special about his performance. He finished 24th and had a 24th place average running position. Last spring he finished 21st and had an 18th place average running position. I will note he did appear to be better than his result because his race wasn’t incident free. With 76 laps he appeared to have a tire issue and made an unexpected pit stop. 8 laps prior to that he was running in 12th, a few laps after his problem he was in 21st. In fall 2016 Bayne finished 20th and had a 23rd place average running position.

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