The Low Tier – Dover
Michael McDowell – At Dover I would look for McDowell to likely be a low to mid-twenties performer. McDowell has a decade of experience at “The Monster Mile” but only his last three races are relevant. Over the last three races he has a 23rd place average finish and a 25th place average running position. Last fall the race was full of long green flag runs and that was bad news for him. The number you need to know from that race for him is 27. He finished 27th, had a 27th place average running position and earned the 27th best driver rating. Last spring he finished 19th, had a 23rd place average running position and earned the 23rd best driver rating. In spring 2016 he finished 20th.
David Ragan – On a weekly basis David Ragan has been a low to mid-twenties driver. At Dover I think there’s a good chance that will be the case again. At Dover, Ragan hasn’t been successful. Last fall he finished 21st, had a 21st place average running position and earned the 21st best driver rating. In the two races prior to that he had back to back 30th’s. In spring 2017 he was low-twenties good but he wrecked at the end. In fall 2016 he finished 30th and had a 29th place average running position. In spring 2016 the attrition rate was sky high and in that event he escaped with a 17th place finish.
Ty Dillon – Ty Dillon hasn’t been competitive in 2018 and I don’t think that will start at Dover. Last fall he didn’t have a good performance. When the checkered flag waved he finished 22nd and had a 26th place average running position. The race was full of green flag runs and it led to him finishing 3 laps down. In spring 2017 he had a quality performance, but it can largely be tied to circumstances. He caught lucky break caution and took advantage of it which led to him leading 27 laps. He was on pace to finish around 4th, but on the last lap he wrecked. Prior to catching his lucky break he was looking like a low teens driver legitimately. In fall 2016 he drove the #95 finishing in 32nd and having a 31st place average running position. He didn’t have any problems in the race, he was just really bad. Unless the attrition is really high or something goofy happens I see it hard for him being any better than the low-twenties on Sunday.
Matt DiBenedetto – Matt DiBenedetto doesn’t have a single good finish on his Dover resume. His average finish is 32.2 and all six of his results are 27th or worse. Last year he had results of 29th and 31st.
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