Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd)
Pocono Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick has never won at Pocono, but on Sunday he’ll be tough to beat. Over the last seven Pocono races minus summer 2015 (engine failure) he’s finished in the top ten every race, has four runner-up results and a 3.5 average finish. Last year he had a spectacular season and finished runner-up in both races. In practice Kevin Harvick had standout speed. His ten lap average ranked as the best and Kyle Larson said he was in a league of his own. That should be pretty telling about how good the #4 is this weekend. On Sunday look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Pocono Track History – 2017 was a great season for Kevin Harvick and he finished runner-up both races. Last summer he had a very strong performance. He finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and would’ve finished in the top five in Stage #2 if pit strategy didn’t come into play. Last spring he had a strong car and finished runner-up hot on Ryan Blaney’s heels. In the race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. If there wasn’t a late caution near the end he likely would’ve finished 4th. In summer 2016 he had a great car that was arguably the best. In the race he earned the best driver rating, finished 4th and had a 7th place average running position. If it wasn’t for the rain shortened ending he would’ve likely battled it out for the win. In spring 2016 he had a great car but a pit penalty really hurt him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th and had a 10th place average running position.
DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $13,500

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 5th)
Pocono Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a favorite to win at Pocono. He was the class of the field in both races last year and he’s entering the weekend with tons of momentum. He just had a dominant performance at Charlotte, and overall he’s won 4 of the last 7 races. With the way his team is performing week in and week out I have no doubt he’ll be a factor again. In Happy Hour, Kyle Busch had a great car. His ten lap average ranked as the 5th best and in an interview he said he was top five good. On Sunday look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Pocono Track History – Last year at Pocono nobody was better than Kyle Busch. If there wasn’t a late caution in the spring he would’ve pulled out the broom and had a season sweep. Last year between the combined races he earned the best driver rating by a wide margin and led the most laps (174). Last summer Busch had a phenomenal performance and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, led 74 laps and won Stage #1. Last spring nobody was better than Busch, but a late caution denied him the win. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 100 laps and finished 9th. Late in the race there was a caution and almost everyone pitted but him. That led to him getting passed and then fading on old tires. If that caution didn’t come out I have no doubt he would’ve won. In summer 2016 Busch had a solid race. He finished 9th and had a 9th place average running position. In spring 2016 he had a competitive car but finished a misleading 31st. With 51 laps to go he got into the wall hard and then took his car to the garage. He was running around 10th at the time of his problem. In summer 2015 he had a great car but finished a misleading 21st after running out of fuel on the last lap while leading. “Strength wise” in that race he was really 2nd place good.
DraftKings $11,300 / FanDuel $12,000

Further Recommended Reading: Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Likely Finish Ranges, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Playability Value Chart

3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 13th)
Pocono Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be a contender at Pocono. He’s run well here and has frequently been knocking on the door to top five finishes. At the “Tricky Triangle” minus the race last summer (drive shaft broke while running in the top five) he has an 8.6 average result and has finished in the top 12 every race. On Sunday I’m confident he’ll run well again and compete for a top five. In Happy Hour, Larson had a great  car. He had the 2nd best ten lap average and the best 15 lap average. In an interview he said his car was the second best after Harvick’s. One attribute I like about Larson is how well his team is running at the moment. Since Bristol minus Talladega his average finish is 6th.
Pocono Track History – Pocono has proven to be a great track for Kyle Larson. Minus the race last summer his track record is impeccable. In July 2017 Larson was very competitive but finished a misleading 33rd. On lap 70 while he was running in 4th his drive shaft broke and that doomed him to his poor result. Last spring he had a solid showing and finished 7th. In summer 2016, Larson had a great car. He finished 6th, had the best average running position (5th), earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 37 laps. If the race ended conventionally he would’ve finished a few positions better. In spring 2016 he had a good car and was likely better than his result, but some pit strategy back fired because of an untimely caution. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $10,900