Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick should be on your short list of favorites at Darlington. Over the last five races he has 1 win, the best driver rating, the best average finish (4.4), the best average running position (4th) and has led the most laps (518). He’s also been a qualifying ace having won 3 of the last 4 poles. Last year, Harvick had a strong showing from the pole and finished 9th. In the race he earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 22 laps. He likely would’ve led even more laps if he didn’t have a slow pit stop during the first caution which dropped him from 1st to 10th. I’ll also note in the final quarter of the race his car wasn’t at its best. In 2016, Harvick had the best car and was unquestionably the driver to beat. Unfortunately, bad pit stops on a few occasions killed his chances of winning. When the race reached its conclusion he earned the best driver rating, finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position and led 214 laps. In 2015 he had a great car and was a serious threat to win. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 5th and led 44 laps. In 2014 nobody was better than Harvick. He dominated the race from start to finish. He started on the pole, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 238 laps. Nobody could keep him out of victory lane that evening. In 2013 Harvick finished 5th. On Sunday look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.

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Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch will be tough to beat at Darlington and on Sunday night I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. Over the last six Darlington races he has a 6.0 average finish, a 6.2 average running position and he’s led the 2nd most laps (319). One attribute you have to love about Kyle Busch is his level of consistency. Since 2010 he’s finished in the top 11 every race. Last year, Busch had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 5th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 9th in Stage #1 and 5th in Stage #2. In 2016 he was a solid performer and when the checkered flag waved he finished 11th, earned the 9th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2015 he was solid. He finished 7th, earned the 10th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. In 2014 he also ran well but he got into the wall a few times and that impacted his level of competitiveness. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 6th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In 2013 he had a dominant car. If it wasn’t for a tire starting to go flat late in the race he likely would’ve won. With 14 laps to go he was in the lead and when the checkered flag waved he fell all the way back to 6th. In that race he had a 1st place average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 265 laps. In 2012 he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 4th and led 44 laps. In 2008, Busch won at Darlington.

Martin Truex Jr. – Martin Truex Jr. will be a favorite to win at Darlington. He won in 2016 and if last years race was 4 laps shorter he would have back to back wins. At Darlington, Truex Jr. has performed at a very high-level. Since 2011 minus 2014 when he had problems he has a 7.5 average finish and a 7.8 average running position. In the last two Darlington races, Truex Jr. has been in the mix for the win. Last year he had a great car. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 76 laps, won the first two Stages but finished a misleading 8th. Late in the race Hamlin had fresher tires and chased him down. I will note while he was leading with 3 laps to go he had a flat tire, got into the wall and then made an unexpected pit stop. In 2016 Truex Jr. had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I will note performance wise he wasn’t better than Harvick. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 28 laps. In 2015 Truex Jr. ran well throughout the event. In the race he started 7th, earned the 6th best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and finished 9th. In 2014 he was low-teens good but had problems and finished 27th. In the three races prior to that he had results of 12th, 5th and 10th.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier