Dover Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Dover who should be on your short list of favorites. He’s the defending champion of this particular event and on Sunday I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. At Dover, Busch has performed at an extremely high-level. He’s a three-time winner who’s finished in the top five 44% of the time and in the top ten 59% of the time. In fall Dover races, Busch has been stellar and over the last three Playoff races he’s finished in the top two. Recent spring races have been pretty troublesome. This spring, he had a great car and was a top five contender but finished 35th after his drive shaft broke shortly after the midpoint. At the time of his problem he was running in 3rd. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. Last fall he had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after passing Chase Elliott with two laps to go. In addition to winning he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 30 laps. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he had a great car but finished a misleading 16th. In the race he started on the pole and led the opening 19 laps until the first round of pit stops. During his stop his team didn’t secure a wheel and it fell off. That did some damage to his car and cost him all of his track position. He rebounded from that and later ran in the top five. Troubled surfaced in the last quarter of the race for him. He was burned by a caution during a pit cycle and then with 37 laps to go he made an unexpected pit stop. In fall 2016 he had a great car. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 102 laps. In spring 2016 he was probably around 10th place good but finished 30th because he was caught up in the “Big One.” In fall 2015 he had a great car and finished runner-up.

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Martin Truex Jr. – Martin Truex Jr. is a premiere performer at Dover who should be on your short list of favorites. On Sunday I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. Since 2014 at Dover he’s only once finished outside the top ten and that result was an 11th. Currently at Dover he has a five race top ten streak. Over this stretch he has the best driver rating, the best average finish (4.2), the best average running position (4.2) and has led the second most laps (387). Earlier this year, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In Stage #1 he made an unexpected pit stop but in Stage #2 he finished 7th. Last fall, he had a fast car. He started on the pole, finished 4th, had a 3rd place average running position and led 51 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he had a great car. He won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, finished 3rd and had a 4th place average running position. In fall 2016 he was impressive and raced his way to victory lane. When the race reached its conclusion he had a 2nd place average running position, led a race high 187 laps and had a race high 82 fastest laps. In spring 2016 Truex Jr. had one of the best cars. He got caught up in the “Big One”, but was able to keep going. When the checkered flag waved he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 9th and led 47 laps.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat at Dover. He was dominant this spring and on Sunday I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. At Dover he’s performed exceptionally well but he has a good amount of recent asterisk mark results. This spring, nobody had anything for him. He finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 201 laps and ran 113 fastest laps. Additionally, he won Stage #1 and Stage #2. Last fall he had a great car and was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 17th. On lap 229 while he was running around 6th he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel that dropped him two laps down. That doomed his afternoon in a race that lacked cautions. In spring 2017, Harvick had a strong car but finished a misleading 9th. “Performance wise” I thought he was top five good but a caution during the pit cycle with 71 laps to go dropped him from about 4th to 16th. Additionally from the race it should be noted Harvick finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and earned the 5th best driver rating. In fall 2016 he really didn’t get a chance to show his hand. On lap 34 while he was running in the top five his track bar mount broke and he immediately took his car to the garage. In spring 2016 he had a great car that ranked as the best. If his team didn’t struggle on pit road which put him in bad situations I don’t think anyone was going to beat him. In the race he led the most laps (117), earned the 3rd best driver rating but finished 15th. In fall 2015 nobody was better than Harvick and he put on a display of domination. He started in 15th but drove his way up to the lead quickly. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 355 laps.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier